The attempted attack in Tel Aviv at the end of last week is a dangerous signal of what is to come towards the Jewish holiday season, the terrorist organizations are not satisfied with terrorism in the West Bank only against the IDF and the settlers and they are trying to transfer it into the main cities in Israel.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad are also increasing the incitement on social media regarding the Al-Aqsa mosque on the Temple Mount in order to ignite East Jerusalem ahead of the Jewish holidays.
The terrorist who planned to carry out the attack in Tel Aviv is 19-year-old Mohammad Minawi from the city of Nablus. He managed to cross the security fence despite the presence of the IDF, which proves that there are still gaps in the fence and it does not provide a hermetic closure from penetration from the West Bank into Israeli territory.
He equipped himself with weapons and explosive charges, and during the Shin Bet investigation he claimed that he wanted to carry out a mass revenge attack because of the death of one of his acquaintances by the IDF.
The Israeli fear of an escalation in terrorism is justified, almost every day there are attacks in the West Bank or attempts to carry out attacks and terrorism is on the rise, the IDF is exploring new ways to deal with the increase in terrorism in the West Bank, including the use of UAVs for intelligence gathering and assassinations.
Last week, the Shin Bet arrested 3 terrorist squads, one of them from the PFLP, which carried out shooting attacks in the Ramallah area, but there are still other terrorist squads operating in the area that have not yet been captured.
Israel is in a race against time to curb the wave of terrorism before the Jewish holidays by increasing the arrest operation of the wanted territories In the West Bank, senior officials say that if terrorism does not stop, the IDF will launch a major military operation in the West Bank.
Israel is trying to stop the momentum of the latest terrorist wave.
The security establishment is looking for ways to stop the spread of terrorism from the north of the West Bank towards the center and south and to strengthen security cooperation with the Palestinian Authority.
Israel is examining the possibility of strengthening the Palestinian Authority through economic concessions, but the problem is not only strengthening the Palestinian Authority, but encouraging its leaders, led by Abu Mazen to motivate himself and his people to fight terrorism.
One way is to put political pressure on the Palestinian Authority through the Biden administration and the European Union to fight terrorism with the utmost determination.
The main tool Israel has to strengthen the PA is the economic tool, that is, to increase economic aid to the PA through increasing the quotas of Palestinian workers in Israel and obtaining financial aid for the PA from foreign sources.
Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar who met last week with Barbara Leaf, The American Assistant Secretary of State for Middle East Affairs who visited Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
According to American sources, he explained to her that the Shin Bet supports measures to strengthen the Palestinian Authority and works to promote them, however, the election period in Israel is very sensitive and makes it difficult to make decisions on the issue
The chairman of the Palestinian Authority has lost the motivation to fight terrorism
According to sources in the Palestinian Authority, PA chairman Abu Mazen is frustrated and angry at the deadlock in the political process, he did not receive any “political horizon” when President Biden visited Bethlehem and senior officials in the Israeli government demand that he wait until after the Knesset elections, but, if the right-wing wins and Benjamin Netanyahu returns to power, he is again expected to encounter an impasse.
Abu Mazen’s next move is to try and get support from the United Nations to accept the “State of Palestine” as a full member of the United Nations, today it has the status of an observer state.
President Biden opposes Abu Mazen’s move, He does not want unilateral measures from any side and it is important for him to continue managing the conflict until the political picture in Israel becomes clearer and the Palestinian Authority’s succession battle is decided.
The president sent Barbara Leaf, the American assistant secretary of state, to Ramallah as well, but Abu Mazen avoided meeting her, to signal his anger, and she had to settle for a meeting with his close associate and designated successor Hussein al-Sheikh.
Barbara Leaf made it clear to him that President Biden opposes Abu Mazen’s move and that if he does not come to his senses, the United States will veto his request for full membership of “Palestine” in the Security Council.
Hussein al-Sheikh rejected Israel’s claims that the Palestinian Authority does not fight against terrorism and claimed that Israel deliberately weakens the PA through daily infiltrations into Palestinian city centers and refugee camps in Area A.
He revealed that the PA proposed to Israel to refrain from infiltrating into Area A for 4 months in order to gain calm but its offer was rejected.
Senior security officials in Israel say that the problem with the PA’s motivation to fight terrorism lies in Abu Mazen himself, he is probably trying to take advantage of the wave of terrorism to squeeze diplomatic concessions from Israel and the US in exchange for renewing the PA’s efforts to fight terrorism
Barbara Leaf, assistant The US Secretary of State warned in her meetings with senior Israeli officials of the imminent possibility of the Palestinian Authority’s collapse and that the responsibility would fall on Israel.
It seems that what will determine the fate of the PA rule is the situation on the ground, if the wave of terrorism increases and even spreads to the main cities in Israel, the Israeli government will have to take an even harder hand and launch a large military operation in northern West Bank
similar to operation” Protective Shield” in 2002.
Abu Mazen’s interest is to prevent the rise of terrorism because a new armed intifada will bring an end to his rule just as the second intifada in 2000 ultimately ended Yasser Arafat’s rule.
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Yoni Ben Menachem
Senior Middle East Analyst
