General Hossein Salami, commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said on August 1th that the US had lost its position as the world’s top power and could not achieve anything.
Although the words come from the mouth of an enemy of the United States, they certainly also reflect the feeling of other countries in the Middle East that the United States has lost its position in the Middle East following the hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, the lax policy of President Biden towards Iran and the fact that Russia and China have taken advantage of the weakness of the United States and deepen their involvement in the Middle East, the best proof of this is China’s successful mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran which resulted in the renewal of diplomatic ties between them.
President Biden is looking for achievements in the Middle East ahead of the US presidential elections, an achievement that he can brandish in front of the voters and show that his failure in the Middle East is not complete and that he can at any given moment return the US with great force to the Middle East as a key player.
After President Biden humiliated Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman two years ago, refused to meet with him and shake his hand and wanted to turn Saudi Arabia into a “leper” country, against the background of accusations by American intelligence that the Saudi Crown Prince was responsible for the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, He realized that because of his political predicament in the Middle East and in the United States, he had no choice but to reconcile with Saudi Arabia in order to achieve his goals.
He sent senior emissaries of the administration to Saudi Arabia and offered Prince Mohammed bin Salman a tripartite political deal that would also include a normalization agreement with Israel.
President Biden is setting a honey trap for Israel, he is well aware of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s strong desire to reach a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, the leader of the Sunni world, and he wants to use this temptation that he presents to Netanyahu to force him to break up the right-wing coalition and bring Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz into the new coalition so that it is possible to implement the agreement with Saudi Arabia and in the same breath to force Netanyahu to accept the two-state solution and commit to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
According to all the publications in the media, it seems that there are many dangers to Israel’s security in several sections that are supposed to be part of the tripartite deal between the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
- The supply of advanced weapons from the US to Saudi Arabia, such as F-35 aircraft, harms Israel’s qualitative advantage over Arab countries.
- The supply of a nuclear reactor from the US to Saudi Arabia for “peaceful purposes“, which over time will also be able to enrich uranium to a military level is very dangerous for Israel, this means that in a few years Saudi Arabia will be able to produce nuclear weapons and this will lead to the acceleration of the arms race in the Middle East, other countries such as Egypt and Turkey would also like to produce nuclear weapons.
- Accepting the two-state solution, freezing the settlements and committing to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state is very dangerous for Israel, the territories of Judea and Samaria are the strategic depth of Israel, Israeli consent to an independent Palestinian state is a very dangerous precedent, the establishment of a Palestinian state in the territories of Judea and Samaria is security suicide and the realization of another step in the “plan of stages” of the PLO to destroy the State of Israel.
President Biden builds his strategy of persuasion on Israel’s internal crisis due to the legal reform, on Netanyahu’s personal distress and on the strong desire of the Israeli Prime Minister to achieve a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia and the creation of his legacy as the one who broke through the dam and brought about normalization agreements between Israel and the Arab world, despite the boycott of the PA.
Senior commentators in the Gulf estimate that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will not give President Biden the great gift and agree to this deal after the American President humiliated him personally and the honor of Saudi Arabia and he will wait for the next American President, which is very logical, Israel should also behave in this way.
There is no rush and it is better to wait until after the elections in the US, maybe a new president will be elected who will be much easier for Israel to work with on the tripartite deal with Saudi Arabia, the normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia can wait, even so there is already a covert normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia and very close ties in the field security and intelligence.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is very interested in a normalization agreement with Israel, he changed the rules of the game in the region and within Saudi Arabia itself where he made many reforms.
Such an agreement fits into the vision of the Saudi Crown Prince, called Vision 2030, which is built on building economic partnerships and common interests without imposing political conditions and regional dialogue.
The well-known Arab proverb “Haste is from the devil” is very appropriate in this case, Israel has no rush, it can wait and eventually reach the normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia on much better terms than what President Biden is now offering and with much less security dangers.
