Israel’s intelligence apparatus correctly assessed, immediately following the coup in Syria and the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, that the new president, Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, was a “wolf in sheep’s clothing”—a senior jihadist terrorist who donned a suit and, with the help of Turkish intelligence, managed to take control of Syria.
The Israeli political echelon accepted the intelligence assessment and recommendations from day one of the coup.
As a result, Israel’s immediate approach to Abu Mohammad al-Joulani was one of deep suspicion.
The political leadership made the right decision, and before al-Joulani could even process the success of his coup, Israel expanded the buffer zone in the Golan Heights and, within days, used airstrikes to destroy all of Bashar al-Assad’s military assets to prevent them from falling into the hands of al-Joulani’s jihadist regime.
In recent days, Israel has further expanded its airstrikes in Syria, targeting new military infrastructures of Hamas and Islamic Jihad organizations that are planning attacks from southern Syria against Israeli communities in the Golan Heights and the Galilee panhandle.
Senior security officials in Israel state that the new president, Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, cannot wash his hands of this atrocity and that he is primarily responsible for the massacre of the Alawite sect.
The intent, they say, was to instill fear among Syria’s other minorities and force them to align with the new order he seeks to impose in the country.
According to these officials, the massacre was carried out by al-Joulani’s men—members of the terrorist organization “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS), for which he serves as the direct commander—alongside additional jihadist militants from Chechnya and the Caucasus.
No operation by this group occurs without al-Joulani’s direct approval, as he maintains an iron grip over it.
Due to severe international criticism, al-Joulani had no choice but to acknowledge that “violations” had occurred at the hands of elements affiliated with HTS, who are now supposed to be part of Syria’s new security apparatus.
Consequently, two investigative committees have been established to examine the events and prosecute those involved.
Will justice be served? Time will tell. It is not unlikely that al-Joulani will attempt to drag out the investigation.
Al-Joulani’s associates have tried to justify the massacre and the crimes committed by claiming that they were the actions of “rogue elements” and that there was no direct connection to the “General Security Apparatus”—the new name for HTS’s security forces.
However, the scale of the attacks and executions in numerous cities and villages along the Syrian coast suggests that these were far more than isolated incidents.
This was, in every sense, a well-organized campaign of revenge. The number of Alawite victims continues to rise.
Israeli security officials argue that even if these events were the result of actions by elements not entirely loyal to HTS or the new security forces, this does not absolve the regime of responsibility—especially when these elements operate under the auspices of al-Joulani’s rule.
The new president has essentially “shot himself in the foot” by failing to halt the massacre of the Alawite sect in its early stages.
He could have stopped it with a single phone call to his commanders in the field, but he did not.
The consequences are immediate and already visible on the domestic front: Syria’s minority communities now feel increasingly unsafe, and there are growing calls within Syria for international oversight to protect them.
There are also voices within the Alawite sect calling on Israel to intervene and assist those among them who are now willing to cooperate with Israel.
Al-Joulani is also facing growing international difficulties. The Western response does not absolve him of responsibility for the massacre, which could hinder efforts to ease economic sanctions imposed on Syria during the rule of the ousted president Bashar al-Assad and complicate the flow of new financial aid to the country.
Soon, reports from international human rights organizations will be published, documenting the situation and exposing the events.
This could further complicate the international community’s stance toward the new regime and hinder efforts to improve relations with it.
Diplomatic sources in Jerusalem warn that if Abu Mohammad al-Joulani does not severely punish those responsible for the massacre of the Alawite sect in Syria’s coastal cities and fails to demonstrate firm control over the internal situation, he will quickly lose international support.
His fate may ultimately resemble that of the ousted president, Bashar al-Assad.
