The assessment in Israel: Sheikh Naim Kasem will be eliminated soon

According to senior security officials, Sheikh Naim Kassem, the new Secretary General of Hezbollah, is in Israel's crosshairs and it will work to eliminate him. In their estimation, his appointment was made under Iranian pressure on the Hezbollah leadership to show that the organization recovers and controls the situation after the severe blows it received from Israel.

Sheikh Naim Kassem was elected by the Shura Council of the Hezbollah organization to the position of Secretary General of Hezbollah in place of Hassan Nasrallah who was killed by Israel about a month ago in a bombing of an underground complex in the Dahiya neighborhood in Beirut.

In fact, after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Sheikh Naim Qassem became the de facto leader of the Hezbollah organization and was in close contact with the Iranian leadership and the “Quds” force commanders.

This was not surprising since he has been serving for about 30 years in the official position of Deputy Secretary General of Hezbollah.

Sheikh Naim Qassem is the senior religious figure remaining from the organization’s leadership, besides him there are two other senior officials, Sheikh Muhammad Yazbek, the head of the Judicial Council, whose health is not good, and the head of the Political Council, Ibrahim Amin A-Sayed.

Last week, rumors circulated in Lebanon that Sheikh Naim Kassem went to Tehran for consultations and also out of fear that if he stayed in Lebanon he would be eliminated by Israel, but Hezbollah sources denied these rumors.

Since the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Sheikh Naim Kassem gave 3 speeches to the Lebanese public, in one of which he appeared sweaty and weak.

In the Israeli security establishment, it is estimated that Sheikh Naim Kassem was officially elected as the Secretary General of Hezbollah under pressure from the Iranian leadership in order to demonstrate to the outside the control of the situation and the rehabilitation of the organization that took a very heavy beating from Israel.

According to Western intelligence sources, Iran promised Sheikh Naim Qassem immediate help to establish his position as the new leader of Hezbollah and also extensive financial aid to restore the organization and also to equip it as soon as possible with means of combat instead of the missiles and rockets that the IDF managed to destroy.

The Saudi Al-Hadath channel reported on October 29 from sources in Hezbollah that the election of Sheikh Naim Qassem to the position took place last Friday with the blessing of Iran and with its consent, the appointment is temporary until the end of the war in order to place a figure who will manage the negotiations on a ceasefire on the northern front and so that it is not considered that Iran is the one managing the contacts.

In any case, the election of Naim Kasem as the new Secretary General is not really important because in any case the important decisions are made in Tehran and dictated to Sheikh Naim Kasem.

His appointment by the Iranians or his election to the position came to fill the void created in the leadership of Hezbollah after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, this is a transitional phase rather than a new phase because Naim Kasem is not expected to remain in his post for long.

Defense Minister Yoav Galant visited the fire center of the Northern Command on October 29 and said that he estimates that “Hezbollah’s ability to fire missiles and rockets has dropped to about 20 percent of what it was, and that’s not in an organized way either.”

Last week he informed the government that the IDF destroyed about two-thirds of its arsenal of missiles and rockets. One of Hezbollah’s problems is the great rage against it in the Shiite community in Lebanon and it needs a lot of money as soon as possible to compensate the tens of thousands of displaced Shiites who were forced to leave their homes and the families of the dead and wounded.

Many residents in southern Lebanon and in the neighborhood of A-Dahiyah in Beirut also lost their places of residence after the IDF destroyed their houses that were used as bunkers, ammunition depots and positions for launching anti-tank missiles and rockets towards the Israeli settlements on the northern border.

Even after the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Iran is the one that transferred a lot of money to Hezbollah for the Shia residents in southern Lebanon and in the neighborhood of A-Dahiyah in Beirut who were harmed during the war.

The Shia community is the political and social support base of the Hezbollah organization in Lebanon and it must take care of its needs and maintain its status, it can only do this with Iranian money.

Sources in Lebanon close to Hezbollah said that in order to strengthen the position of Hezbollah and the new Secretary-General, Iran sent General Mohammad Riza Falah Zadeh, deputy commander of the “Quds” force, and dozens of other military advisers to fill the vacuum in the command and control avenue created as a result of the targeted assassinations carried out by Israel .

Israel did not remain indifferent to the election of Sheikh Naim Qassem to the post of Secretary General of Hezbollah.

Defense Minister Yoav Galant published an online post on X on October 29 to which he attached a photo of Naim Kasem, and wrote that “the appointment is temporary, the countdown has begun”.

Israel signals to Sheikh Naim Kasem that his appointment to the position is a mistake for which he will pay with his life.

The appointment of Naim Kasem to an important and sensitive position indicates that Israel is not ready in principle to accept the newly created situation, it intends not to allow Hezbollah to grow a new leadership and if it does so it will eliminate it.

Security sources estimate that Israel still has an excellent intelligence penetration capability at the top of Hezbollah and that it is only a matter of time until it locates the hiding place of Sheikh Naim Kasem and eliminates him.

According to them, the method of targeted assassinations proved its effectiveness in the war on the northern and southern fronts and is necessary to collapse the command and control system of the terrorist organizations.

Yoni Ben Menachem Senior Middle East Analyst

About Yoni Ben Menachem

Yoni Ben Menachem is a Middle East senior analyst ,a journalist and
the former CEO of the Israel Broadcasting Authority(IBA). He has
decades of experience in written and video journalism. Ben
Menachem’s path in the media world began as a producer for
Japanese television in the Middle East. After that, he held many key
positions in the media The Israeli: CEO of the Israel Broadcasting
Authority, director of “Kol Israel” Radio, reporter on West Bank and
Gaza Strip affairs, political reporter and commentator, commentator
on Middle East affairs and editor-in-chief and presenter of the
program “Middle East Magazine”. 

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