The Arab world is following with great interest the results of the Israeli elections and the imminent return of Prime Minister-elect Benjamin Netanyahu to power.
The most worried about the rise of the right camp to power are the Jordanians and the Palestinians.
Jordanian sources say that King Abdullah is very afraid of Netanyahu’s return to the Prime Minister’s Office, the two figures have very bad personal relations.
In conversations with his associates, the Jordanian king expresses fear that Jordan is about to lose the guardianship it has in the Temple Mount according to the 1994 peace agreement with Israel.
The king also fears that the Netanyahu government will change the status quo on the Temple Mount and allow Jews to pray there and will also annex the Jordan Valley to Israel in the future.
For King Abdullah, the rise of the right to power in Israel means burying the two-state option deep in the ground and adopting the concept that “Jordan is Palestine”.
The king intends to share his concerns with President Biden soon.
The Jordanian King’s concerns are also shared by PA Chairman Abu Mazen who is very disappointed with the results of the Israeli elections and with the fact that he lost his good relations with Defense Minister Benny Gantz.
The assessment of the situation by the Palestinian leadership is that the results of the elections in Israel will lead to the Oslo Accords being buried even deeper in the ground, therefore the PA plans to launch an aggressive international campaign against the new right-wing government led by Netanyahu.
The PA leadership is concerned that the new right-wing government in Israel will expand the construction of settlements and the visits of Jews in the Temple Mount therefore, PA Chairman Abu Mazen, in coordination with King Abdullah of Jordan, intends to contact President Biden and the European Union so that they will put pressure on the future Netanyahu government to refrain from this.
Abu Mazen’s assessment is that the two-state solution is disappearing from the horizon and that Netanyahu will try to find a suitable opportunity during his new term to re-promote the idea of annexing territories in the West Bank.
Abu Mazen will have to decide how to act towards the Netanyahu government and whether to implement the decisions of the Central Council of the PLO to freeze the Oslo Accords and the security coordination with Israel.
Egypt and the Gulf States
According to all estimates, Egypt, which previously worked with Prime Minister Netanyahu, will renew the personal ties that existed between him and President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and the ties will continue according to the format that was in the past.
Lebanon is not worried that Prime Minister-elect Netanyahu will not implement the maritime border agreement and it trusts the guarantees it received from the Biden administration regarding the implementation of the agreement in which it is very interested.
Most of the Gulf countries that have normalized relations with Israel are officially silent and say that the election results are an internal matter within Israel, but they see the results of the elections in Israel as a positive thing that will contribute to the regional balance in the face of the Iranian threat.
However, Bahrain sent a message of reassurance to Israel,
Sheikh Khaled Bu Ahmed Al Khalifa said on November 5 that the Kingdom of Bahrain will continue to adhere to the Abraham Accords.
He added that “Netanyahu’s victory was normal and expected” and noted that his country will continue to build its relationship with Israel.
Commentators in the Gulf countries estimate that Netanyahu will try to reach a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia and other Arab and Muslim countries and that he will not enter into dangerous political and security adventures.
A senior official in the Gulf says that Netanyahu’s tough plans towards Iran helped to establish the normalization agreements between Israel and the Gulf states and that Iran is a constant source of concern for the Gulf states and Israel’s firm stance towards Iran is very important for its deterrence.
The bottom line is that the main problem of the new Israeli government is expected to be with Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, both of which have an influence on what is happening on the Temple Mount, in East Jerusalem and in the West Bank and can contribute to the escalation of the security situation or to calming it down, Netanyahu knows this.
