The joint headquarters of all the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip conducted a live fire military exercise a few days ago with the participation of elite units, to test the speed of the fighters’ response and their readiness for war.
One of the scenarios in the exercise was an intrusion into Israeli territory and the taking captive of IDF soldiers.
Hamas officials say that the issue of security prisoners and forcing Israel to agree to a prisoner exchange deal on Hamas’ terms will be one of the main issues in 2023.
The last round of fighting in the Gaza Strip was relatively short, the military confrontation was between the IDF and the Islamic Jihad organization and it lasted only 56 hours, the Hamas organization did not participate in the fighting.
Yichya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, said at the large ceremony held by the organization in Gaza City to mark its 35th anniversary that the special intelligence of the military branch estimates that in 2023 there will be a confrontation between the new right-wing government in Israel and the Gaza Strip because of the extreme composition of the government and that Hamas is preparing for a similar major military confrontation that took place in May 2021.
Hamas sees the new Netanyahu government as the most extreme government in Israel’s history that plans to increase settlements and change the status quo on the Temple Mount.
On the other hand, senior political figures in Jerusalem say that the new Netanyahu government intends to continue to maintain the relative calm that has characterized the Gaza Strip for the past year.
The Netanyahu government intends to continue providing humanitarian relief to the Gaza Strip, bringing thousands of workers from the Gaza Strip to work in Israel and transferring the Qatari financial grant of $30 million to needy families in the Gaza Strip.
The terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip took advantage of the period of calm to continue the production of the rockets and offensive tunnels that were damaged during the IDF operation in May 2021.
Security officials in Israel say that the focus of the new Israeli government will be on stopping the wave of terrorism in Judea and Samaria and preventing escalation.
The armed groups in northern West Bank have been able to rehabilitate themselves since then hit by the IDF, the new Defense Minister Yoav Galant is supposed to re-evaluate the IDF’s activities in the West Bank and the current arrest operation which failed to curb the wave of terrorism and had only partial success.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad plan to give a boost from the Gaza Strip for the terrorist activities of the armed groups in the West Bank, these two organizations are investing efforts in establishing new terrorist cells in the West Bank, transferring funds to terrorist operatives and recruiting workers from the Gaza Strip who work in Israel for terrorist and espionage activities.
Hamas has no interest in initiating a new round of fighting with Israel in the near future, the organization says that it contributed its part in the military confrontation with Israel in 4 rounds of fighting since the withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip and that it is the West Bank’s turn for a new armed intifada against Israel.
It is necessary to pay attention to what Muhammad Def, the Chief of Staff of the military wing of Hamas, said on the 35th anniversary of the founding of the Hamas movement, he pledged to “concentrate all energies against the occupation and unite all fronts against it”.
The Netanyahu government will adopt a policy of crisis management vis-à-vis the Gaza Strip with the continuation of humanitarian relief in exchange for security calm.
Therefore, the terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip should only enter into a new round of fighting with Israel in extreme scenarios such as a serious violation of the status quo on the Temple Mount, a large number of Palestinian deaths in the West Bank and targeted assassinations of senior terrorists.
The Hamas organization says that the jihad against Israel is not being given up, but the temporary calm in the Gaza Strip can only last for the time being if Prime Minister Netanyahu curbs the extreme right led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir.
