Senior security officials indicate that the IDF advises the political leadership to end the Rafah area military operation soon and shift additional forces to the northern border, anticipating a large-scale military clash with Hezbollah.
They assert that Hezbollah only responds to force, necessitating increased military action to ensure the safe return of the tens of thousands of Israeli citizens evacuated from the northern border.
Conversely, political figures in Jerusalem argue that the IDF must fulfill its objectives in Rafah and should not halt the operation prematurely.
It appears that the IDF will intensify its actions in Rafah in response to Hezbollah’s escalation.
Security sources believe Hezbollah’s increased activity on the northern border is a reaction to the assassination of senior Hezbollah leader Taleb Abdullah, with Iran’s approval, aimed at disrupting the IDF’s Rafah operations and aiding Hamas.
Political sources in Jerusalem suggest that Israel prefers to achieve the removal of Hezbollah’s “Radwan” forces from the northern border and the implementation of UN Resolution 1701 through a political agreement mediated by the US, rather than through a significant military campaign.
Such a military operation would require occupying all of southern Lebanon, a move the IDF is prepared for but which the political leadership seeks to avoid.
The military operation against Hamas in Rafah is expected to continue for another month, according to the IDF.
Afterward, the political and security cabinet will convene to approve operational plans for southern Lebanon.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is exercising caution, wanting to allow the Biden administration to explore all political solutions with Lebanon. The administration also has a vested interest in a political settlement to prevent a war that could negatively affect President Biden’s election campaign.
Meanwhile, Israel will persist in its strategy of targeting Hezbollah’s senior commanders. Although this has not yet deterred Hezbollah or altered its strategy, security sources believe it is damaging the morale of Hezbollah fighters and the image of Hassan Nasrallah in the Arab world.
Security sources assert that after the IDF’s operation in Rafah concludes, Israel will establish a new stance against Hezbollah, hoping to secure stronger support from the Biden administration.
