The assault on settlements surrounding Gaza orchestrated by Yahya Sinwar, leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, on October 7, 2023, marked the initial phase of his strategy to bring about the downfall of the State of Israel, as indicated by sources within Hamas in Gaza.
Sinwar anticipated that his surprise offensive would prompt direct military engagement from Hezbollah, Iran, and other allies across the Middle East, culminating in a comprehensive assault on Israel from multiple fronts, ultimately leading to its defeat.
Officials within Hamas in Gaza assert that Yahya Sinwar identified critical vulnerabilities in Israel’s governance, security apparatus, and societal cohesion, viewing this as an opportune moment to realize the vision of his mentor, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, the founder of Hamas who was assassinated by Israel in 2004.
Sheikh Ahmed Yassin appointed Yahya Sinwar as head of Hamas’s security apparatus, known as “Majd,” shortly after the organization’s inception.
Majd primarily focused on rooting out Palestinians suspected of collaborating with Israel in the Gaza Strip.
Yahya Sinwar was apprehended by the Israeli security agency, Shin Bet, in Khan Yunis in 1989. He was convicted of the murder of several Palestinians suspected of collaboration and was subsequently released from Israeli custody in 2011 as part of the “Shalit deal.”
More than two decades ago, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin prophesied in an interview with Al Jazeera’s program “Evidence on the Times” that Israel would cease to exist by 2027, based on interpretations of the Quran.
He articulated his belief that historical cycles, as delineated in the Quran, would lead to Israel’s demise.
Yahya Sinwar, a devout Muslim, perceives himself as a leader akin to Salah a-Din Al-Ayoubi, the Muslim general who initiated a successful jihad in 1187 AD, ultimately capturing Jerusalem from the Crusaders.
Sinwar began devising plans for the assault on Israel following Operation “Guardian of the Walls” in May 2021, during which he identified vulnerabilities in Israel’s defenses.
He named the rocket attack on Jerusalem “Sword of Jerusalem” and the broader assault on Israel on October 7, “The Flood of Al-Aqsa,” despite the attack’s lack of direct connection to the Al-Aqsa Mosque.
He aimed for the assault, along with concurrent attacks by Iran’s proxies, to be perceived in the Muslim world as a unified Islamic response against Israel, despite the disparate ideological affiliations involved.
Sinwar’s collaboration with Iran diverges from Sheikh Ahmed Yassin’s stance, who opposed Hamas, a Sunni Jihadist organization, aligning with Shia Iran.
However, Sinwar prioritized achieving their shared goal of defeating Israel by any means necessary.
Despite the IDF’s capture of approximately 60% of the Gaza Strip and the elimination of a significant portion of Hamas’s military capabilities, Yahya Sinwar remains confident in his ability to overcome Israel.
He believes that through the leverage of Israeli hostages held by Hamas, he can compel Israel to cease hostilities and withdraw entirely from Gaza, thus securing his reign and earning renown in Muslim history.
Therefore, it is imperative for the conflict to conclude with a decisive Israeli victory, thereby thwarting Yahya Sinwar’s ambitions and preventing Sheikh Ahmed Yassin’s vision from taking root among the populace of Gaza.
