Hezbollah’s Equation: Tel Aviv in Exchange for the Al-Dahiyah District in Beirut

Hezbollah continues to propagate its narrative through media channels, claiming that it successfully struck the headquarters of Unit 8200 and the Israeli Mossad in the Tel Aviv area.Hezbollah asserts that it has established a new deterrence equation: an Israeli attack on the al-Dahiyah neighborhood in Beirut will be met with a retaliatory strike on Tel Aviv.

The organization also maintains that it successfully avenged the death of Fuad Shuker, its chief of staff who was assassinated by Israel.

According to Hezbollah, the new equation, established by Hassan Nasrallah, is that any attack on Tel Aviv will be in response to actions taken in the al-Dahiyah district in Beirut.

Commentators in the Arab world suggest that only time will reveal whether Hassan Nasrallah’s claims are truthful or exaggerated.

They argue that the Israeli narrative regarding the results of the IDF’s preemptive strikes on Hezbollah targets should be taken into account.

Some commentators believe Hezbollah remains determined to continue its attacks on Israel and will carefully plan its next moves to avoid detection, especially given that the assassination of Fuad Shuker indicates Israel has deeply penetrated the organization’s high echelons.

The Lebanese newspaper “Al-Akhbar,” which often serves as a mouthpiece for Hezbollah, recently criticized Israel.

The newspaper claimed that despite Israel’s formidable military capabilities, its political and security leadership struggles to translate this power into effective operations, even in response to Hezbollah’s attacks.

In an article by Ali Haidar, a journalist known to be close to Hezbollah and Hassan Nasrallah, Israel was accused of spreading false narratives about the alleged attack on Unit 8200’s headquarters by Hezbollah.

Haidar asserted that Hezbollah fulfilled its promise to avenge Fuad Shuker’s assassination and is prepared for any confrontation, regardless of the consequences.

He claimed that while Israel failed in its attempts, Hezbollah successfully established the equation that an attack on the al-Dahiyah district in Beirut would result in a corresponding attack on Tel Aviv, specifically the “Glilot” intersection, where the headquarters of Unit 8200 and the Mossad are purportedly located.

Hezbollah continues to argue that this new equation, supposedly demonstrated by striking a strategic intelligence target in Tel Aviv, underscores its commitment to maintaining this stance and its willingness to target strategic sites in Tel Aviv, even if it leads to war.

According to Hezbollah, Israel will perpetually need significant American support in the region to protect itself whenever it crosses red lines in its conflict with Hezbollah.

The “Al-Akhbar” article urges Israel to revert to the previous rules of engagement that were in place before Fuad Shuker’s assassination in the al-Dahiyah neighborhood.

The article suggests that Israel cannot solely rely on the American Navy or its own military might.

Israeli security sources interpret this article as reflecting Hassan Nasrallah’s deep concern that Israel might launch another attack on the al-Dahiyah district—Hezbollah’s main stronghold where Nasrallah himself is believed to be hiding in a bunker.

Such an attack could result in the destruction of the district and the elimination of senior Hezbollah figures.

During the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Israel nearly destroyed the al-Dahiyah district in Beirut with heavy aerial bombardments.

After the war, Nasrallah claimed that Israel had attempted to eliminate him and Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, who was with him in one of the bunkers in the al-Dahiyah district.

Yoni Ben Menachem Senior Middle East Analyst

About Yoni Ben Menachem

Yoni Ben Menachem is a Middle East senior analyst ,a journalist and
the former CEO of the Israel Broadcasting Authority(IBA). He has
decades of experience in written and video journalism. Ben
Menachem’s path in the media world began as a producer for
Japanese television in the Middle East. After that, he held many key
positions in the media The Israeli: CEO of the Israel Broadcasting
Authority, director of “Kol Israel” Radio, reporter on West Bank and
Gaza Strip affairs, political reporter and commentator, commentator
on Middle East affairs and editor-in-chief and presenter of the
program “Middle East Magazine”. 

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