Is the PA about to collapse?
Shin Bet head Ronan Bar met a few days ago, at his request, with prime minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu and at the meeting he warned from the possibility of the PA collapsing.
The wave of organized terrorism by the armed groups in the Nablus and Jenin areas continues and also receives a support by individual terror attacks as we saw last week in the attack in the Ariel area where 3 Israeli citizens were murdered by the lone terrorist Mohammed Souf from the village of Hares in Samaria.
The wave of terrorism has not yet turned into a new armed intifada because the majority of the Palestinian public in the West Bank is not involved in it, most of the Palestinian residents do not want their economic situation to worsen and tens of thousands of Palestinians to stop working in Israel even though they identify with the idea of armed resistance to the Israeli presence in the West Bank and the settlement policy.
The PA has lost its control over the areas of Jenin and Nablus and new terrorist groups are growing in the area, however, the Chairman of the PA Abu Mazen, still controls the situation despite the weakening of his position on the Palestinian street, he has at his disposal a military force of about 30 thousand armed security forces of the PA, not to mention the tens of thousands of Fatah “Tanzim” militants in the West Bank.
Senior Fatah officials warn that the rise of the right-wing government in Israel will lead to a major security escalation in the West Bank and it is possible that even a new armed intifada, Prime Minister-designate Netanyahu wants the Palestinian Authority to continue to remain as the political-security address of the Palestinians and to continue managing the conflict, he does not want the IDF to return to controlling the large concentrations of the Palestinian population in the West Bank and for Israel to be the one responsible for managing the day-to-day lives of more than two million Palestinians in the West Bank.
Security officials in Israel say that it is very important to continue security coordination with the Palestinian Authority for the purpose of fighting terrorism and preventing the Hamas movement from rising to power in the West Bank, this is true, but it should be remembered that the Palestinian Authority also benefits a lot from this security coordination.
The Biden administration is very concerned about the weakening of the Palestinian Authority’s power and demands that Israel strengthen it, it is expected to demand the same from the new government led by Netanyahu.
Palestinian Prime Minister Muhammad Ishtayeh accuses Israel of consistently working to destroy the Palestinian Authority and damage its institutions, this is a false claim which is intended for internal political needs.
A possible collapse of the PA has dangerous internal consequences for the state of security in the West Bank and also an effect on the state of regional stability, moderate Arab countries such as Egypt and Jordan fear the consequences of the collapse of the PA for their internal security situation and they are sending clear messages about this to the US and Israel.
The PA is currently not going anywhere, Israel will not allow the collapse of the PA from a security and economic point of view, even though the PA has lost security control in Jenin and Nablus, this situation is reversible and with the help of the IDF it can regain control , what is required is a large IDF military operation to eliminate the armed groups in the northern West Bank.
The PA and Israel are awaiting the departure of PA Chairman Abu Mazen from the political stage, the Biden administration has realized that until then there is no point in trying to renew the political negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians and it is focusing on continuing to manage the conflict.
The concept of “economic peace” is not enough to stop the escalation security in the West Bank, both the Biden administration understands this and Israel, however, the Netanyahu government will also be forced to continue the economic relief for the Palestinian Authority.
The assessments of the security establishment in Israel predict a violent succession battle at the top of Fatah after the departure of the chairman of the PA from the political stage, the PA will need a temporary successor until elections are held in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and at least for a period of one year to stabilize the rule of the newly elected ruler, During this period it will not be possible to talk about the resumption of political negotiations.
Meanwhile, the absence of the political process between Israel and the Palestinians harms Israel’s attempts to expand the normalization process to additional Arab and Muslim countries.
