In the coming days, a new government will be established in Israel led by Benjamin Netanyahu, it is a right-wing government that firmly and rightly opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank.
The Biden administration is well aware of the nature of the new government in Israel and is not interested in entering into a conflict with it, the administration knows that there is no possibility now to renew negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, but it has already conveyed its red lines to Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu, that is, a demand from Netanyahu not to do any unilateral steps on the ground that would harm the option of a two-state solution and avoiding changing the status quo on the Temple Mount.
The American expectation from Netanyahu is that he will continue to work to strengthen the Palestinian Authority and its economy and improve the economic situation of the Arab residents in the West Bank. It is very likely that Netanyahu will align himself with the administration on this line.
One of the main problems at the moment is the continuation of the wave of terrorism in the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority has lost its security control in the Nablus and Jenin areas and is not interested in a frontal confrontation with the armed terrorist groups.
The Netanyahu government will have to redefine the IDF and Shin Bet new ways to stop the wave of terrorism , the IDF’s large arrest operation is not enough to curb terrorism.
At the top of the Fatah movement, the succession battle continues and Fatah officials have formed armed militias for themselves in preparation for “the day after Abu Mazen”.
The chairman of the PA named as his successor his associate Hussein al-Sheikh, he appointed him as the secretary general of the executive committee of the PLO, al-Sheikh has the support of Israel, the USA, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia but is not accepted on the street The Palestinian, due to suspicions of corruption ,he is unlikely to be elected in legal presidential elections.
It is possible that he will be appointed interim president after PA Chairman Abu Mazen steps down from the political stage, but a bloody succession battle is expected between him and other candidates such as Jabril Rajoub, Mahmoud al-Aloul, Tawfiq al-Tirawi, Marwan Barghouti and others.
There is also an option that eventually a compromise will be found and the Palestinian rule will be divided temporarily between three senior figures from Fatah until elections are held.
In any case, the security situation in the West Bank does not allow holding general elections for the presidency and parliament.
According to Palestinian public opinion polls, the Hamas movement and its leaders are very popular among the Palestinian public and are expected to win any election process that will take place.
In the West Bank and Gaza Strip, there is a large increase in the support of Palestinian public opinion for the idea of armed struggle against Israel, it opposes the idea of negotiations, this explains the establishment of the armed groups in the northern West Bank, it is the younger generation that sets the tone and receives support from Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Iran.
Continuation of the existing situation without elections is the priority of the Palestinian Authority, Israel and the international community who are not interested in “rocking the boat” and bringing Hamas to power through elections.
Holding elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip also requires national agreement between all Palestinian factions, currently there is no agreement on this issue between the Fatah movement and the Hamas movement.
The widespread public support in the Palestinian street for the idea of an armed struggle against Israel is currently putting off the option of renewing negotiations in the coming future between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Senior officials in Fatah say that the Palestinian street in the West Bank must sober up and that support for the ideas of an armed struggle will not bring about any change for the better in its situation but just make it worse as it was in the second intifada, in the end the IDF is stronger than the Palestinian factions that engage in terrorism.
In any case, it is impossible to reach any agreed political horizon between the Netanyahu government and the Palestinian leadership led by Abu Mazen.
After Israel’s disengagement from the Gaza Strip, Hamas took over Gaza Strip by force, expelled the Palestinian Authority from it and established a small terrorist state in it that is engaged in the production of rockets and missiles, the production of drones and the construction of offensive tunnels in preparation for war with Israel.
Any Israeli withdrawal from parts of the West Bank will result in a repeat of the Gaza Strip precedent.
The PA has lost its security control in the north of the West Bank.
The establishment of an independent Palestinian state in the heart of Judea and Samaria is a great security danger to Israel, the most that can be done towards the Palestinians is to establish an autonomy regime with ties to Jordan, but even this requires a courageous Palestinian leadership that does not exist now and it is highly doubtful that such will be elected in the future, the Palestinians prefer to continue the path of armed struggle at the same time as the political struggle to try and force Israel to establish a Palestinian state along the lines of 67.
The negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians turned into a fata morgana, even the Lapid-Ganz government did not want to hold it, PA chairman Abu Mazen, who is considered a “moderate”, is not a partner for peace from Israel’s point of view, only after he leaves the political stage, it will be possible to reconsider the renewal of negotiations, this also depends a lot on the question of who will be Abu Mazen’s successor.
