Hezbollah is trying to deter Israel 

Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah maintains ambiguity regarding his organization's responsibility for the attack at the Megiddo Junction and warns Israel of a military response against Lebanon. Israel estimates that Hezbollah's Unit 133 is behind the attack and that Nasrallah is very afraid of assassinations and tries to deter Israel through threats.


Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke on March 23 in Lebanon at the commemoration of Hussein al-Shami, one of the organization’s senior leaders, referring for the first time to the attack at the Megiddo junction, which Israel estimates that Hezbollah was behind. 

Nasrallah’s speech came after Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israel’s hand will reach the architects of terrorism everywhere and after the Israeli Mossad assassinated Ali Alaswood a few days ago in Damascus, the senior Islamic Jihad leader who was planning attacks against Israel in the coming days. 

Sources in Lebanon said that following the assassination of Ali Ramzi Alaswood, Lebanese intelligence advised the Hezbollah Secretary General and the organization’s senior officials to take new precautions for fear that Israel would try to harm them. 

Hassan Nasrallah, who fears a harsh Israeli reaction against his organization in response to the attack at the Megiddo Junction, sent a threat to Israel and said that any harm to a person in Lebanon, Lebanese or Palestinian or any other citizen, Hezbollah will respond to it with a decisive and swift response. 

Hassan Nasrallah’s threat was intended to deter Israel from reacting against him or his organization, although from his words it is possible to understand perhaps one of the reasons why Nasrallah gave the order to carry out the attack at the Megiddo Junction, he probably estimated that Israel is  weak and would be forced to contain the attack and not respond and described Israel as a temporary entity that has In it weakness, crisis and embarrassment, internal struggle, despair and insecurity


Security sources in Israel estimate that the assassination of the senior Islamic Jihad in Damascus put Hassan Nasrallah under pressure and therefore he rushed to threaten Israel. 

The IDF estimates that Unit 133, the secret Hezbollah unit headed by Haj Khalil Harb, which is responsible for recruiting Palestinian agents and carrying out attacks in Israel, is the one behind the attack at the Megiddo Junction, possibly through cooperation with the Hamas organization in southern Lebanon.


The IDF’s investigation revealed that the terrorist who entered Israel from Lebanon to carry out the attack at the Megiddo Junction crossed the border fence using a special ladder prepared for the purpose of the mission. 

In his speech, Hassan Nasrallah did not deny Hezbollah’s responsibility for the attack at the Megiddo Junction and maintained ambiguity, he explained that Hezbollah’s silence is part of the management of the battle against Israel and sent Defense Minister Yoav Galant to tile the sea. 

He tried to use the attack as part of his psychological warfare against Israel, he mocked it and said that it should find out how the terrorist entered Israel from Lebanon and how he carried out the attack and claimed that the attack embarrassed Israel. 

The fact that Nasrallah did not deny Hezbollah’s responsibility for the attack indicates that he is looking for a way to take credit for the attack, but on the other hand, following the assassination of a senior Islamic Jihad official in Damascus attributed to Isarel  he fears an Israeli response. 

Hassan Nasrallah is actually busy these days promoting the candidacy of former minister Suleiman Faranjiya for the position of President of Lebanon, Lebanon is in an acute political and economic crisis, security officials in Israel estimate that an Israeli response to an attack at the Megiddo Junction against Hezbollah or Hamas in Lebanon will not lead to war, it could lead to  a small battle for a few days of fighting, but it will strengthen Israel’s deterrence. 

Israel urgently needs a new deterrence equation against Hezbollah, one that will not entangle it in an unnecessary war in the north of the country.   


Israel has already proven that when it has the right opportunity, it assassinates Hezbollah’s terrorist leaders, thus Hezbollah Chief of Staff Imad Mu’aniya was assassinated in 2008 and the organization’s top official Samir Kuntar was assassinated in 2015, whose hands were covered in Israeli blood. Israel’s new deterrence equation should be based on the killing of Hassan Nasrallah or the assassination of senior officials in his organization, everything depends on Israel’s intelligence and operational capabilities. 

Hassan Nasrallah is not currently interested in another military conflict with Israel, he remembers well the results of the Second Lebanon War and is deterred by threats from senior Israeli officials to return Lebanon to the Stone Age if Hezbollah attacks Israel. 

Yoni Ben Menachem Senior Middle East Analyst

About Yoni Ben Menachem

Yoni Ben Menachem is a Middle East senior analyst ,a journalist and
the former CEO of the Israel Broadcasting Authority(IBA). He has
decades of experience in written and video journalism. Ben
Menachem’s path in the media world began as a producer for
Japanese television in the Middle East. After that, he held many key
positions in the media The Israeli: CEO of the Israel Broadcasting
Authority, director of “Kol Israel” Radio, reporter on West Bank and
Gaza Strip affairs, political reporter and commentator, commentator
on Middle East affairs and editor-in-chief and presenter of the
program “Middle East Magazine”. 

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