In Jordan, a process of “Jordanization” surrounding Yahya Sinwar, head of Hamas’s political bureau, has begun.
This follows parliamentary election results where the Muslim Brotherhood secured 31 seats.
On the Jordanian street, Yahya Sinwar is now referred to as the new “Jordanian commander.” Mentions of former military chief Muhammad Deif have dwindled, with many believing he was eliminated by Israel.
While Yahya Sinwar’s popularity is rising in Jordan, the Shin Bet’s hunt for him and his brother Muhammad has intensified.
Muhammad Sinwar now leads Hamas’s military wing following the alleged death of Deif.
A former Shin Bet senior official asserts that both brothers will soon be eliminated, with the “hunting ring” tightening around them.
“It’s only a matter of time. If we reached Muhammad Deif, wanted for 30 years, we will reach them,” he said.
As Israel dismantles Hamas’s military infrastructure in Gaza, intelligence advances will likely pinpoint their location.
Since October 7th, the Shin Bet and the IDF have deployed units to gather intelligence on the Sinwar brothers.
These efforts previously resulted in the assassination of Hamas military chief Muhammad Deif, Hamas Chief of Staff Marwan Issa, and numerous senior figures involved in attacks on Israeli civilians.
The intelligence team, consisting of dozens of Shin Bet personnel, works closely with IDF forces in Gaza to achieve operational accessibility that was previously impossible.
In the field of human intelligence (Humint), there is no substitute for direct contact with sources.
Shin Bet agents work tirelessly around the clock, waiting for that “Golden Information” that will reveal the Sinwar brothers’ location or for a mistake in their behavior to lead Israeli forces to them.
The current Israeli intelligence assessment suggests that Yahya and Muhammad Sinwar are hiding in the Khan Yunis area, their natural birthplace, where they have likely prepared multiple hideouts.
Constantly on the move and guarded by Hamas’s elite “Shadow Unit,” the Sinwar brothers are not always in proximity to Israeli hostages, though it’s believed they hold around 20 as human shields.
Only a select few know the exact details of their whereabouts.
Their communications rely on couriers and written letters to avoid detection, only rarely emerging from tunnels to make brief phone calls before disappearing again.
So far, they have managed to stay ahead in this deadly game of cat and mouse.
However, Israeli security forces are applying increasing pressure and employing a variety of intelligence methods to provoke a slip-up.
Israeli intelligence is confident the Sinwar brothers remain in Gaza and have not fled to Egypt or elsewhere, meaning their capture or elimination is only a matter of time.
Shin Bet has already reconstructed much of the Sinwar brothers’ movements, even if not in real time.
This information provides valuable insights into their methods and contacts.
Eliminating Yahya and Muhammad Sinwar would be a significant operational and psychological blow to Hamas, creating a leadership vacuum that Israel could leverage.
Hamas has reportedly already identified Yahya Sinwar’s successor: Muhammad Darwish, head of the movement’s Shura Council.
Even Hamas leadership understands that Yahya Sinwar is living on borrowed time and is likely to be eliminated by Israel.
The brothers have no intention of surrendering or seeking exile in exchange for hostages.
As one senior security official put it, “They have a death wish. They are sophisticated, operating like mafia bosses, but the Shin Bet knows how to handle them.
This is a game of minds, but in the end, Israeli intelligence and the IDF’s operational capabilities will reach them.”
