The Israeli security establishment increasingly believes that Mohammed Sinwar, a senior Hamas leader in Gaza, was likely killed in an Israeli Air Force strike on an underground compound in Khan Younis, along with several other top figures in Hamas’s military wing. However, it will still take time before final intelligence confirmations are received verifying his death.
Rumors are circulating in Gaza that alongside Sinwar, the spokesman of Hamas’s military wing, known as “Abu Ubeida,” may have also been killed.
Hamas has imposed a strict media blackout, and members of the military wing have warned residents and local journalists not to disclose any information regarding the identities of those killed or wounded in the airstrike, in order not to assist Israeli intelligence, which closely monitors every piece of information emerging from the Gaza Strip.
A senior official in Israel’s Southern Command stated that the possible elimination of Mohammed Sinwar could pave the way for a new hostage deal—perhaps even along the lines of the “Wittkof Framework”—as Sinwar had been one of the most staunch opponents of any such deal.
However, a senior Fatah operative in Gaza believes that if Sinwar was indeed eliminated by Israel, it could actually delay progress toward a new hostage agreement.
According to him, Hamas will not want to appear as if it is surrendering to Israeli military pressure by agreeing to a deal in the immediate aftermath of losing one of its top commanders.
He explained that Hamas is a jihadist movement that cannot afford to be seen as having “raised a white flag” and capitulated due to the assassination of a key figure.
In anticipation of such a scenario, Hamas’s military wing had already designated a successor to Sinwar: Izz al-Din al-Khaddad, the commander of Gaza City and the northern region.
He further assessed that even if Hamas’s leadership abroad is interested in advancing a new hostage deal, it will face difficulties in the coming days coordinating with the military leadership inside Gaza, as all senior figures have gone underground fearing Israeli strikes.
Residents in Gaza report that the prevailing sentiment is that Israel attempted to assassinate Mohammed Sinwar in order to sabotage the negotiations with the Hamas leadership in Doha and to justify launching the major military operation “Gideon’s Chariots” following former President Trump’s visit to the Gulf states.
Senior security officials stated that the attempt to eliminate Sinwar came as a result of a “golden opportunity.”
Following extensive intelligence efforts, the opportunity presented itself as a one-time chance, and once both intelligence and operational conditions were in place, a decision was made to act.
According to them, in the past month and a half, the IDF and Shin Bet have successfully eliminated more than 50 senior Hamas operatives.
Still, a senior security source emphasized that it is too early to determine how the assassination attempt will affect the hostage negotiations and that it is necessary to wait for confirmed intelligence that Sinwar was indeed killed.
