Yoni Ben Menachem's Blog

Abu Muhammad al-Jolani’s Attitude Toward Israel

2 January 2025

The new ruler of Syria, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, is careful not to confront Israel. Despite the IDF’s activities in the Golan Heights and bombings in Syria, his focus remains on achieving stability for his rule and securing international recognition.
Currently, Israel follows a policy of “respecting and suspecting him,” and so far, it has not established open or secret communication channels with Abu Muhammad al-Jolani.

Abu Muhammad al-Jolani’s Attitude Toward Israel

2 January 2025

The Palestinian Arena

The “Operation for the Defense of the Homeland” by PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas

Senior security officials in Israel express deep skepticism about the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) ability and willingness to dismantle terrorist strongholds in northern Samaria.
They argue that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) must intervene directly with a large-scale operation, akin to a “Protective Wall 2” initiative, involving two divisions.

PA Chairman Abbas Prepares for Potential Transition of Leadership

Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, now 89 years old, is taking steps to ensure an orderly transfer of power in anticipation of a scenario where he may be unable to fulfill his duties due to health issues or other incapacitation.

Hamas Loots Humanitarian Aid and Eliminates Rivals

Hamas killed 20 residents in the Gaza Strip, accusing them of stealing humanitarian aid.

The PA’s Concerns About Potential Annexation Under Trump

The PA is increasingly concerned that Israel may seek to annex parts of Judea and Samaria during the upcoming term of former President Donald Trump.
PA officials report that President Mahmoud Abbas has made a strategic decision to lift the boycott on Trump’s administration, resuming negotiations with Israel on the basis of a two-state solution.

The Palestinian Arena

The “Operation for the Defense of the Homeland” by PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas

PA Chairman Abbas Prepares for Potential Transition of Leadership

Hamas Loots Humanitarian Aid and Eliminates Rivals

The PA’s Concerns About Potential Annexation Under Trump

Iran and the Shiite axis

Iran Furious at the Damage Caused by Yahya Sinwar to the Axis of Resistance

Western intelligence sources report that Iran is outraged with Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar for dragging it into a confrontation with Israel that has inflicted significant harm on the axis of resistance it leads.
Hamas’s attack on Israel has triggered a domino effect across the Middle East, with Iran emerging as one of the main casualties of the fallout.

Mujtaba Khamenei: A More Radical Successor to Iran’s Supreme Leadership?

Iran is making significant efforts to counter the wave of rumors suggesting that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is in critical medical condition and that the regime’s “Council of Experts” has already selected his son, Mujtaba Khamenei, as his successor. Mujtaba Khamenei is known for his vehement hostility toward the United States and Israel. He is closely aligned with the Revolutionary Guards and is a staunch supporter of a multi-front confrontation strategy against Israel. Additionally, he advocates for the production of nuclear weapons as a means to strengthen Iran’s regional power.

The Expected Policy of President Trump in the Middle East

President Trump is preparing for his return to the White House, having already appointed key figures to his administration who will shape Middle East policy.
His goals reportedly include preventing conflicts and fostering economic prosperity, alongside a personal ambition to secure a Nobel Peace Prize.
However, commentators in the region question whether his team is equipped to deliver on these promises.

Iran Expected to Attack Israel Despite Severe Damage to Its Air Defense System

According to senior security officials, Israel’s recent airstrike on Iran has reportedly destroyed all of Iran’s strategic air defense capabilities and severely hindered its ability to produce new ballistic missiles.
Despite these setbacks, Iran is determined to respond to the Israeli attack and is currently engaged in damage control efforts.

Iran And The Shiite Axis

Iran Furious at the Damage Caused by Yahya Sinwar to the Axis of Resistance

Mujtaba Khamenei: A More Radical Successor to Iran’s Supreme Leadership?

The Expected Policy of President Trump in the Middle East

Iran Expected to Attack Israel Despite Severe Damage to Its Air Defense System

The Gulf Countries

Hezbollah

Israel Must Adopt a New Security Policy on the Northern Border

The cease-fire agreement with Lebanon presents Israel with significant intelligence and operational challenges to prevent Hezbollah’s military recovery and reestablishment in southern Lebanon.

The assessment in Israel: Sheikh Naim Kasem will be eliminated soon

According to senior security officials, Sheikh Naim Kassem, the new Secretary General of Hezbollah, is in Israel’s crosshairs and it will work to eliminate him.
In their estimation, his appointment was made under Iranian pressure on the Hezbollah leadership to show that the organization recovers and controls the situation after the severe blows it received from Israel.

Hezbollah Fears Appointing a Successor to Hassan Nasrallah Amid Israeli Assassination Threats

According to sources in Lebanon, Hezbollah is currently governed by a temporary “collective leadership” following the assassination of its Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, by Israel.
The organization has yet to choose a successor, as the leadership is wary of further Israeli attacks.

The Succession Battle in Hezbollah Under Fire

Hezbollah is facing a crucial decision as it prepares to choose a successor following the death of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
With the mourning period coming to an end, Iran is expected to play a decisive role in determining the new leader, someone who will be instrumental in rebuilding Hezbollah’s power.
The leading candidate for this position is Hashem Safi al-Din, Nasrallah’s cousin and the head of Hezbollah’s executive council, who maintains close ties with Iran.

Hezbollah

Israel Must Adopt a New Security Policy on the Northern Border

The assessment in Israel: Sheikh Naim Kasem will be eliminated soon

Hezbollah Fears Appointing a Successor to Hassan Nasrallah Amid Israeli Assassination Threats

The Succession Battle in Hezbollah Under Fire

Syria

Abu Muhammad al-Jolani’s Attitude Toward Israel

President Bashar Assad’s Strategic Stance: Walking a Tightrope

Since the onset of the conflict, Syrian President Bashar Assad has notably maintained a neutral stance, refraining from direct action against Israel despite his alignment with the Iran-led axis, and despite Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) operations within Syrian territory. Speculation abounds regarding Assad’s reluctance to confront Israel directly, with many attributing it to a fear of Israeli retaliation. Assad’s primary concern appears to be the preservation of his regime and the reconstruction of war-torn Syria.

President Assad’s Critique of Hamas Leadership

Syrian President Bashar Assad Criticizes Hamas Leadership for “Treachery and Hypocrisy”. Despite the recent official reconciliation between the Syrian regime and Hamas, President Assad remains opposed to allowing Hamas to establish offices in Damascus or create a military presence in Syria.

The Lingering Threat of ISIS

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The terrorist threat posed by ISIS has not diminished; in fact, the organization is actively working to strengthen itself and regain momentum in the Middle East. Intelligence sources in the West report that ISIS is gaining ground in Afghanistan and several African countries. Israel is collaborating with Egypt and Western nations in the fight against ISIS. The organization has carried out attacks in Israel in recent years and is attempting to recruit Arab activists from Israel and East Jerusalem.

Syria

Abu Muhammad al-Jolani’s Attitude Toward Israel

President Bashar Assad’s Strategic Stance: Walking a Tightrope

President Assad’s Critique of Hamas Leadership

The Lingering Threat of ISIS

Egypt

High Tensions in Israel-Egypt Relations

The dispute between Israel and Egypt over the “Philadelphia Corridor” has led to heightened tensions between the two countries.Political officials in Jerusalem estimate that the peace agreement is not currently at risk, but the security establishment is concerned about Egypt’s military build-up and the system of tunnels and bridges it has constructed on the Suez Canal.
This infrastructure could allow Egypt to transfer large military forces to the Sinai Peninsula unexpectedly.

There is no danger to Israel’s relations with Egypt

Despite the horrific murderous attack on Israel’s border with Egypt, there is no danger to the strategic relations between Israel and Egypt.
Israel sees the peace agreement with Egypt as an important pillar in its national security concept, the IDF and the Egyptian army will learn lessons and they are supposed to change the deployment of forces and security measures along the common border.

The danger of the war in Sudan

The internal crisis in Sudan continues, the military struggle between the heads of the military government is escalating and the war between them may also spread to neighboring countries on the border of Sudan.
Israel is concerned about the situation in Sudan and calls on both sides to reach reconciliation, the escalation of the crisis could severely damage the normalization process that has begun between Israel and Sudan on the way to a peace agreement between them.

The warning of the Egyptian Chief of Staff

The Egyptian Chief of Staff, General Osama Askar, delivered
a warning to Chief of Staff Hertzi Halevi from an explosion in the security situation in East Jerusalem and the West Bank that could destabilize the region.
Egypt is furious with the Netanyahu government and demands that it curb the measures it is taking against the Palestinians.

Egypt

High Tensions in Israel-Egypt Relations

There is no danger to Israel’s relations with Egypt

The danger of the war in Sudan

The warning of the Egyptian Chief of Staff

The political kitchen - Yoni Ben Menachem

Challenging Task Lies Ahead in Targeting Hamas Leadership Abroad

The intelligence agencies of Lebanon, Qatar, and Turkey have implemented stringent security measures to protect individuals associated with the Hamas movement. There is growing concern that the Israeli Mossad might attempt assassinations, prompting a need for heightened security.

Yossi Cohen started the race to become the Prime Minister

The handling of the issue of the release of the hostages held by Hamas is scandalous, former head of the Mossad Yossi Cohen pushed himself into the issue and is conducting negotiations at the same time as the head of the Mossad David Barnea who was officially appointed to the task .
According to political sources, Yossi Cohen started his campaign for Prime Minister with the assumption that at the end of the war Netanyahu would step down from the political stage.

The weakening of the PA

The Palestinian political system began to engage in soul-searching regarding the fate of the PA and its future in Judea and Samaria.
The current Israeli government does not want the PA to collapse, it wants it to continue managing the day-to-day lives of the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria and be ready to resolutely fight terrorism.

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