American Secretary of State Tony Blinken will arrive in Israel today and he will meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu and PA Chairman Abu Mazen in an attempt to calm the tension and put an end to the violence.
One of the main issues that the American foreign minister will discuss will be the Palestinian Authority’s announcement on the cessation of security coordination with Israel.
The chairman of the PA chose to announce this in a vague way that would allow him to get off the tree, his spokesman Nabil Abu Roudeineh announced that the security coordination no longer exists as of now but refrained from explicitly stating that the PA had stopped it.
In practice, PA officials claim that the regular meetings between IDF officers and Palestinian security forces officers have been stopped, but both sides understand that it is only a matter of time and contacts will resume as soon as the situation calms down.
The PA is trying to claim to the Palestinian street that the cessation of security coordination is the Achilles’ heel of the Israeli security establishment and that if it ceases coordination with it, Israeli security will be seriously harmed, however, this is not the case.
It is true that the security coordination with the Palestinian Authority helps Israel in the war against terrorism in the West Bank, however, since the Oslo Accords and until today, Israel relies only on itself in this area, we have already seen the revolving door policy of Yasser Arafat who arrested terrorists and immediately released them, Abu Mazen is not like him but Israeli governments have since learned to trust only Israeli intelligence.
The Israeli Shin Bet does an excellent job in the field of the war on terrorism regardless of the security coordination with the PA, therefore, the PA will lose more than Israel if it stops the security coordination, the PA maintains the security coordination mainly to ensure the continuation of Abu Mazen’s rule.
The PA is very dependent on Israel in the field of security in regards to the movements of PA Chairman Abu Mazen inside and outside the West Bank, all senior PA officials hold VIP certificates that allow them to pass through the IDF checkpoints and enter the territories of the State of Israel and also travel abroad.
The Palestinian police cannot change the location and deployment of its forces in the West Bank without coordination with the IDF, tens of thousands of workers from the West Bank working in Israel cannot enter its territories without the approval of the Israeli Shin Bet, Palestinian families cannot receive medical treatment in hospitals in Israel without the approval of the Israeli security establishment .
The PA also cannot bring food and goods into its territory without Israeli security approval.
The complete cessation of security coordination on the part of the PA could lead to the deterioration of the security situation in the West Bank and strengthen the power of the Hamas movement, it is very doubtful if Abu Mazen is interested in this, he will undermine the throne of his rule with his own hands.
Senior officials in Fatah estimate that Abu Mazen will slow down the security coordination and lower its level in order to create the appearance that he is carrying out the decisions of the Palestinian leadership but will not stop it completely.
Fatah senior officials are already criticizing Mahmoud Abbas because this move was hasty and will cause irreparable damage to the Palestinian Authority.
A senior member of the Fatah leadership, Tawfik al- Tirawi, who was the head of the Palestinian General Intelligence and coordinated the security activity with the Israeli Shin Bet, warned as early as February of last year that the cessation of security coordination with Israel would lead to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority.
It should be remembered that since 2005 until today, the Israeli Shin Bet personally saved the Chairman of the PA at least twice from an assassination attempt on his life planned by the Hamas organization and exposed terrorist organizations of Hamas that planned to overthrow the PA rule through a series of attacks.
The chairman of the PA is playing with fire in his decision to stop security coordination with Israel, this could ignite a conflagration in the West Bank that would go out of his control and bring a new disaster on the Palestinians as was the case in the second intifada when Yasser Arafat chose the path of terror after the failure of the Camp David summit.
As soon as Abu Mazen releases the tiger of violence by stopping the security coordination with Israel, things may get out of his control and he will have a hard time riding the tiger again.
The assessment in the security establishment is that Abu Mazen is trying to deter Israel, the US and Egypt that the security situation has become fragile because of Israel’s policies and that they are responsible for what will happen on the ground if they do not stop Israel’s annexation intentions.
He is trying to improve his position on the Palestinian street, the Palestinian public opinion polls show that 70 percent of the Palestinian public want him to retire immediately from the political arena.
In the meantime, the Palestinian public does not buy the Palestinian Authority’s statements.
The Palestinian street is largely convinced that the cessation of security coordination is a show by the Palestinian Authority that continues to secretly coordinate with the Israeli security establishment.
