Israel is still recovering from the murderous terror attack last weekend in the Ramot neighborhood of Jerusalem, the phenomenon of lone terrorists strikes Israel again and the Israeli security system has no answer to this phenomenon.
The new right-wing government in Israel is refraining from a major military operation in the northern West Bank for the time being, even though the security situation requires it.
According to security officials, in northern Samaria, in the areas of Nablus, Jenin and Tulkarm, there are already about a thousand armed terrorists, thousands of illegal weapons and huge amounts of ammunition, the Palestinian Authority’s security forces no longer enter these areas and the security vacuum is filled by terrorist organizations, mainly The military wing of the Islamic Jihad organization and the military wing of Fatah.
The IDF and the Shin Bet continue the large daily arrest operation which has only partial success but it cannot uproot the terrorist infrastructure, this requires the occupation of the area, the arrest of all wanted terrorists and a thorough cleaning of the area from the terrorist infrastructure.
The Biden administration is exerting great pressure on the Netanyahu government to avoid a major military operation for fear that this will lead to an escalation towards the month of Ramadan, at the same time it is exerting pressure on the PA to agree to the new security plan drawn up by American General Mike Fenzel to train 12,000 Palestinian security personnel to fight terrorism in the northern West Bank. Abu Mazen refuses the American plan and has even stopped security coordination with Israel.
The armed terrorist groups in the north of the West Bank continue to carry out attacks and are even planning attacks in Israel itself, 3 weeks ago the IDF was forced to enter the Jenin refugee camp in order to capture a terrorist cell of the Islamic Jihad that was planning to carry out a major attack inside Israel, during an IDF operation in the camp in the refugee camp 9 Palestinians were killed, most of them were terrorists who shot at IDF soldiers.
The Palestinian terrorist groups are considered a security time bomb, they continue to grow and spread towards other areas in the West Bank, recently such a group of the Hamas organization arose in the Aqbat Jaber refugee camp in the Jericho area and established there the Aqbat Jaber Battalion which began to carry out attacks in the Jericho area.
The armed groups continue to carry out attacks against Israeli targets and it is estimated that they will even escalate the attacks during the year 2023, however, they are unable to unite into one organized body that will be a replacement for the Fatah movement which is the backbone of the Palestinian Authority.
On the other hand, the continuation of the terrorist activities of these groups may lead to a large explosion in the area that will accelerate the process of the PA’s collapse.
Another possible scenario is that the Hamas movement will take advantage of this phenomenon to deepen its presence and influence in the West Bank in preparation for a future takeover of the Palestinian Authority.
These scenarios are bad from Israel’s point of view and it must find, as quickly as possible, the most suitable timing from a political and military point of view to launch a large-scale operation against the armed terrorist groups in the West Bank whose strength is gradually increasing.
The terrorist activity of the armed groups that emerged in the northern West Bank immediately after the IDF’s Operation in the Gaza Strip in May 2021, together with the phenomenon of individual terrorist terrorism, as we saw in the massacre in the Neve Ya’akov neighborhood in Jerusalem and the murderous attack at the Ramot intersection in Jerusalem, encourage the Palestinian public and the Arab sector in Israel to prepare for an armed intifada during the month of Ramadan, this activity is accompanied by an extensive campaign of incitement by the PA and the Hamas and Islamic Jihad organizations, the main narratives in this campaign are that the Al-Aqsa Mosque is in danger and that Israel is swallowing Palestinian land through the expansion of settlements.
The leadership of security prisoners in Israel’s prisons announced on February 13 that at the beginning of the coming month of Ramadan, the 5,000 security prisoners will go on a hunger strike in protest of the deterioration of their prison conditions, the move is intended to increase the security escalation.
The PA, the terrorist organizations and Jordan plan to challenge the Netanyahu government from a security point of view while the Palestinian Authority’s political activity in the international arena will present the right-wing government as an apartheid government and drag it to the International Court of Justice in The Hague.
President Biden conveyed messages to Prime Minister Netanyahu to avoid unilateral measures towards the Palestinians that could lead to escalation, he is also interfering in the legal reform that the government intends to pass through legislation in the Knesset and so far has not invited Netanyahu to the White House, on the other hand he has invited King Abdullah of Jordan who met with him about ten days ago and discredited the policies of the Israeli government.
The new Palestinian young generation, which did not experience the second intifada 20 years ago, is motivated and full of enthusiasm to fight against Israel, the leadership of the Palestinian Authority is disconnected from it and the terrorists of the armed groups, the stars of the Tik Tok application are its heroes.
The West Bank and East Jerusalem are warming up for an impending explosion, Israel is facing a major security challenge in the coming weeks.
