A new deterrence equation against Hezbollah 

Hezbollah is behind the attack at the Megiddo Junction and is trying to use it to encourage the Palestinian terrorist organizations to increase terror deep in Israel ahead of Ramadan. Israel must soon adopt a new deterrence equation against Hezbollah, one of the ways is to give the green light to the Israeli Mossad to assassinate Hassan Nasrallah and other senior members of his organization.


Hezbollah remains silent and does not respond to the attack at the Megiddo Junction, Hassan Nasrallah maintains the policy of ambiguity and Hamas is also not tempted to take responsibility for the attack. 

Hezbollah is surely satisfied that it managed to embarrass Israel, to prove that the border with it has been breached, in recent months Hezbollah has sent dozens of foreign workers from Lebanon to cross the border in order to locate Israel’s weak points. 

The Secretary General of Hezbollah correctly estimated that the Israeli government would at this stage choose a policy of containment and would not respond with force to the attack. Nasrallah caught Israel unprepared for a military confrontation and deeply involved in a political, and security crisis ahead of  Ramadan. 

Hassan Nasrallah’s assessment has not changed, he estimates that Israel only understands the language of power and is weaker than a spider’s web, therefore he continues the line he took last year after launching 4 drones at the Karish gas rig to force the Yair Lapid government to sign the economic water agreement with Lebanon according to Hezbollah’s terms. 

The internal situation in Lebanon is very difficult from a political and economic point of view, but Hassan Nasrallah obeys orders from Iran, the Revolutionary Guards is convinced that Israel has weakened and now sees a golden opportunity to strike at it through Iran’s proxies in the Middle East. 

Nasrallah relies on the fact that his military force, which includes tens of thousands of rockets and drones, will restrain the Israeli response to the attack in Megiddo. 

He also trusts Hezbollah’s special unit called the Radwan Battalion, which has been training for several years to penetrate Israeli territory and occupy parts of the Galilee, and also the military force of Hamas in southern Lebanon. 

Defense Minister Yoav Galant said during a tour of the northern border after the attack at the Megiddo Junction that whoever carried out this attack will regret it and Israel will find the right time and choose the right way to strike at him, this statement is intended to deter Hezbollah and calm the Israeli public, but Israel does not need talk it needs actions. 

Every day that passes without an Israeli response only encourages Hezbollah and the Palestinian terrorist organizations to continue their attacks. 

Hezbollah continues to violate UN Resolution 1701 and in the past year has deployed hundreds of its fighters along the border with Israel together with Palestinians who belong to the Hamas organization. 


to deter Hezbollah  


Israel urgently needs a new deterrence equation against Hezbollah, one that will not entangle it in an unnecessary war in the north of the country. 

Since Hezbollah chose to carry out the attack at the Megiddo junction without its fingerprints, Israel can respond in the same way. 

It is no secret that the Israeli Mossad has great intelligence and operational capabilities in Iran and Lebanon, therefore, Israel can certainly renew the targeted killings in Lebanon and assassinate a major strategic target related to Hezbollah and Iran, 

In addition to this, the Palestinian terrorist leaders Ziyad Al-Nakhala, the Secretary General of the Islamic Jihad, and Saleh al-Aruri, the deputy chairman of the Hamas movement, live in the al-Dahiya neighborhood in Beirut and they can be assassinated secretly without Israel’s fingerprints. 

 Hassan Nasrallah is walking a tightrope, he has no immunity from assassination by Israel, since 2006 he has been living in a bunker for fear that Israel will kill him. 

Abd al-Karim Nasrallah, Hassan Nasrallah’s father, told the Iranian News Agency that he sees his son only once a year when he unexpectedly comes to visit. 

According to reports from Lebanon, Nasrallah lives away from his family who also live under strict security arrangements, Hassan Nasrallah has 4 sons and a daughter, his eldest son Hadi was killed in 1997.


According to Lebanese sources, Hassan Nasrallah is being protected by a special Hezbollah unit numbering 150 people who are equipped with advanced security measures. 

According to Hezbollah announcements, in 2004 an attempt to kill Nasrallah using poisoned food failed and in 2006 another attempt to kill him by bombing a building he was staying in failed. 

In 2011, an explosion occurred in a residential building in the al-Dahiya neighborhood in Beirut where Nasrallah was supposed to meet with senior officials of his organization and a month later a car bomb exploded in the center of Beirut, where he was supposed to give a speech. 

Israel has already proven that when it has the right opportunity, it assassinates Hezbollah’s terrorist chiefs, thus Hezbollah Chief of Staff Imad Mu’aniyah was assassinated in 2008 and the organization’s top official Samir Kuntar in 2015, whose hands were covered in Israeli blood. 

However, according to Western intelligence sources, Israel has the ability to kill Nasrallah even where he is hiding. 

Israel’s new deterrence equation should be based on the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah or the killing of senior officials in his organization, everything depends on Israel’s intelligence and operational capabilities. 

Lebanon today is split and divided, Hassan Nasrallah, despite his great power, is having trouble stabilizing the political situation in Lebanon. 

 Hassan Nasrallah is not currently interested in another military conflict with Israel, that is why he did not take responsibility for the attack at the Megiddo Junction, he remembers well the results of the Second Lebanon War and is deterred by threats from senior Israeli officials to return Lebanon to the Stone Age if Hezbollah attacks Israel. 

Yoni Ben Menachem Senior Middle East Analyst

About Yoni Ben Menachem

Yoni Ben Menachem is a Middle East senior analyst ,a journalist and
the former CEO of the Israel Broadcasting Authority(IBA). He has
decades of experience in written and video journalism. Ben
Menachem’s path in the media world began as a producer for
Japanese television in the Middle East. After that, he held many key
positions in the media The Israeli: CEO of the Israel Broadcasting
Authority, director of “Kol Israel” Radio, reporter on West Bank and
Gaza Strip affairs, political reporter and commentator, commentator
on Middle East affairs and editor-in-chief and presenter of the
program “Middle East Magazine”. 

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