Danger of miscalculation in the Middle East

Israel sent messages to the members of the axis of evil led by Iran saying that they are misreading Israel's internal situation and warned them that Israel would respond with determination and force to any attack. The danger of miscalculation in the Middle East increased following the wave of protests in Israel against the judicial reform and the crisis in Israel's relations with the US.



Israel will soon respond to the attack at the Megiddo junction for which the Hezbollah organization is responsible, it can be estimated with high probability that the Israeli response will be proportionate, it is possible that without fingerprints, the Israeli intention is that the response will not drag Israel into an all-out war.

The Israeli security establishment rightly fears, relying on reliable intelligence, an attack by the axis of evil led by Iran on Israel during the month of Ramadan, the fear also stems from the fact that Israel’s enemies are misreading the internal situation in Israel.

In the security establishment, this is called the danger of miscalculation, Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, are wrong in their assessments of the strength and power of the State of Israel due to the internal crisis regarding judicial reform, and they may be tempted to attack Israel in the near future with rockets, missiles, etc in combination with a wave of terrorist attacks, something that will lead to a regional war.

In recent days there has been great euphoria in the resistance axis led by Iran and an assessment that Israel is facing disintegration due to the great wave of protests against the Israeli government in the hope that it will lead to a civil war that will weaken the IDF and Israeli society and lead to its collapse and the flight of Israeli citizens abroad.

The axis of resistance estimated that Israel is living in the most dangerous and difficult period since its establishment that threatens its continued existence. The dismissal of Defense Minister Galant was seen as an acute crisis of trust between the political and military ranks in Israel, which prevent Israel in this situation from embarking on a military confrontation against Iran, Hezbollah and the terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip.

Israel’s enemies are also encouraged by the crisis in Israel’s relations with the US, although they estimate that this is a temporary crisis, senior officials in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards believe that a window of opportunity has now been created that should be quickly exploited to strike Israel before it closes.

The Hezbollah organization has already begun taking steps to change the rules of the game that have been used until now because of what it interprets as Israeli weakness and a deep crisis in its relations with the United States.

Iran is also encouraged by this crisis and is considering the possibility of enriching uranium to the level of 90 percent, which would allow it to produce a nuclear bomb.


Israel is aware of the phenomenon of miscalculation and has sent out, through mediators, warnings to all parties concerned not to be tempted to attack it, because the Israeli reaction will be extremely strong to any attempt to harm it.

The moderate Arab countries are following the crisis in Israel’s relations with the US, they estimate that the crisis is temporary and that it will be resolved soon because both sides have no interest in continuing it.

Israel is the main ally of the US in the Middle East, President Biden has bad relations with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey and the position of the US in the Middle East is eroding and a new player entered the regional arena which is China.

The moderate Arab countries are disappointed with President Biden’s position towards Iran and the way he is handling the Iranian nuclear issue.

The Biden administration cannot afford to lose an important ally and friend in the Middle East like Israel, nor can it afford to lose the friendship of the Arab regimes in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is concerned about Saudi Arabia’s decision to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a move seen as Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement with the Sino-Russian axis.

The Saudi government approved a few days ago the joining of Saudi Arabia to this organization, which is an economic-security organization in which the following countries are members: China, Iran, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

In this organization there are Arab members such as Egypt and Qatar and other countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Turkey.

Iran, which was in  an observer status in the organization, upgraded itself to full member status.

From Saudi’s point of view, joining the organization balances the situation in the Middle East and allows the entry of additional key players into the region in light of the fact that the Biden administration has lost the ability and desire to maintain its position in the Middle East and the status quo.

Yoni Ben Menachem Senior Middle East Analyst

About Yoni Ben Menachem

Yoni Ben Menachem is a Middle East senior analyst ,a journalist and
the former CEO of the Israel Broadcasting Authority(IBA). He has
decades of experience in written and video journalism. Ben
Menachem’s path in the media world began as a producer for
Japanese television in the Middle East. After that, he held many key
positions in the media The Israeli: CEO of the Israel Broadcasting
Authority, director of “Kol Israel” Radio, reporter on West Bank and
Gaza Strip affairs, political reporter and commentator, commentator
on Middle East affairs and editor-in-chief and presenter of the
program “Middle East Magazine”. 

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