The day after the war in the Gaza Strip

The Biden administration began accelerated talks with Israel, the PA and the moderate Arab states to reach an agreement on the political entity that will rule the Gaza Strip after the war. The chairman of the PA demands the recognition of a Palestinian state as a condition for the return of the PA to control the Gaza Strip, Israel makes it clear that the ultimate security responsibility in the Gaza Strip will remain in its hands.

Israel must prepare well for the day after the war in the Gaza Strip after it succeeds in toppling the Hamas regime and destroying its military infrastructure in the Gaza Strip.

The PA is already preparing for this possibility, the assessment of the associates of the PA chairman is that in the end, after a few months, the IDF will succeed in occupying the entire Gaza Strip and overthrowing the rule of Hamas even if there is strong international opposition to the continuation of the war, in their estimation , this time the Israeli government is going all the way.

The big question that preoccupies the Palestinians is what will be the fate of the Gaza Strip after the war, who will control it and who will restore it from the ruins of the war.

Will there be enough international aid for this and who will finance the reconstruction expenses of the Gaza Strip?

According to PA sources, PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas made it clear to US Secretary of State Tony Blinken that the PA will not return to control the Gaza Strip “on top of Israeli tanks”.

According to them, Mahmoud Abbas set a clear condition for the Biden administration: The PA will return to control the Gaza Strip only on the condition that the international community and Israel recognize an independent Palestinian state within the borders of 67 and East Jerusalem as its capital, the future Palestinian state must include a territorial continuum between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with safe passage between the two.

The PA aims to take advantage of the war in the Gaza Strip to significantly advance the two-state solution option and according to sources in the PA, the Biden administration also intends to put strong pressure on the Israeli government to agree to this outline.

This could be a political trap for Israel, which is planning to withdraw from the Gaza Strip after the collapse of Hamas rule, Israel does not want to control more than two million Palestinians and take care of the rehabilitation of the Strip from the damage of the war, its priority is to restore the Israeli economy and the Israeli settlements that were destroyed in the war.

However, a senior Israeli political official clarifies that as far as Israel is concerned, the status of the Gaza Strip after the withdrawal of the IDF from it will be the same as the status of Area B in Judea and Samaria, the overall security responsibility for the Gaza Strip will be in the hands of Israel and the IDF will be able to enter it whenever it wants to fight against terror,

The PA is weak from a security point of view, it has already lost control over the Samaria region in the last two years, which was taken over by armed terrorist groups supported by Iran, it will have a big problem controlling more than two million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

One of the options being discussed between the Arab countries and the US is to bring back senior Fatah official Muhammad Dahlan, born in the Khan Yunis refugee camp, who became a big businessman in Abu Dhabi and an adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, so that he can control the Gaza Strip.

Dahlan’s associates say that he will not fall into the trap and that he sets the same condition as PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas, namely the prior agreement of the international community and Israel for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip on line 67 with East Jerusalem as its capital.

A senior official in the Fatah movement says that one of the ideas emerging in the international community is to hasten the departure of Mahmoud Abbas, 88, from the political stage, to establish a temporary technocratic government for a period of two years that will rehabilitate the Gaza Strip with the funds of the Gulf countries and the international community, and then to hold general elections in the West Bank and the Strip Gaza.

The names proposed to head the government are former prime minister Salam Fayyad or Nasser al-Kidwa, the nephew of Yasser Arafat and the former Palestinian foreign minister, both figures accepted by the international community.

The Palestinian street in Judea and Samaria and in the Gaza Strip does not want the PA led by Mahmoud Abbas to control the Gaza Strip and be responsible for its rehabilitation, it wants Mahmoud Abbas to retire from political life together with the corrupt gang that surrounds him and to be replaced by a new temporary leadership until general elections are held.

The American administration is very concerned about the question of what will happen in the Gaza Strip after the war ends and is holding urgent consultations on the issue with Prime Minister Netanyahu, with PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and with Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, there is still no clear outline regarding the expected government in the Gaza Strip after the collapse of Hamas rule and Israel insists that the situation that existed on the border of the Gaza Strip until October 7 will never be repeated and that the Israeli communities will be able to continue living on the border of the Gaza Strip safely.

But it seems that international pressure will increase on Israel after the war to agree to a new road map and enter a political path of accepting the principle of establishing an independent Palestinian state in Judea and Samaria and the Gaza Strip as a main part of the solution to the Gaza Strip issue.

Yoni Ben Menachem Senior Middle East Analyst

About Yoni Ben Menachem

Yoni Ben Menachem is a Middle East senior analyst ,a journalist and
the former CEO of the Israel Broadcasting Authority(IBA). He has
decades of experience in written and video journalism. Ben
Menachem’s path in the media world began as a producer for
Japanese television in the Middle East. After that, he held many key
positions in the media The Israeli: CEO of the Israel Broadcasting
Authority, director of “Kol Israel” Radio, reporter on West Bank and
Gaza Strip affairs, political reporter and commentator, commentator
on Middle East affairs and editor-in-chief and presenter of the
program “Middle East Magazine”. 

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