Iran’s Strategy: A Cautious Approach Amidst Confrontation with Israel

Iran is adopting a cautious strategy in its ongoing confrontation with Israel. Despite enduring significant setbacks in Syria, Tehran currently appears disinclined to engage in an all-out war with Israel.Rather than pursuing immediate escalation, Iran is intensifying its campaign of attrition against Israel while implementing a strategy aimed at uniting various arenas of conflict.

 Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah recently addressed the issue of war with Israel during his speech on “International Jerusalem Day.”

While Nasrallah vowed an Iranian response to the assassination of Hassan Mahdavi in Damascus, he also downplayed the likelihood of an all-encompassing military confrontation with Israel.

However, Nasrallah emphasized that Hezbollah is not afraid of war.

According to Iranian sources, the leadership in Tehran believes that the present moment is not conducive to a full-scale war with Israel.

Despite Iran’s desire to eliminate the Israeli threat, it perceives Israel’s current efforts to provoke conflict as a trap designed to undermine Iran’s interests.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is apprehensive that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu aims to entangle Iran in a war, thereby compelling the United States to intervene on Israel’s behalf.

Khamenei fears that the US would utilize its significant military power while simultaneously targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Iran has communicated this concern to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah through General Ismail Qa’ani, commander of the Quds Force in the Revolutionary Guards. Qa’ani conveyed a message from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during his recent visit to Beirut.

At present, Iran’s preferred approach involves intensifying the war of attrition against Israel, monitoring developments in the Gaza Strip conflict, and tightening the grip on Israel by bolstering armed resistance from terrorist groups in northern Samaria.

Additionally, Iran aims to open a new front against Israel from the Jordanian border.

Iran’s strategy is coordinated with leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Ismail Haniyeh and Ziad Al-Nakhallah, respectively, who recently visited Tehran and met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior members of the Revolutionary Guards.

Iran assured them of increased support from its affiliates in the Middle East, particularly ahead of the potential occupation of the Rafah area, to prevent the collapse of Hamas rule in Gaza.

Central to Iran’s strategy is the concept of “unity of the arenas,” which it has employed since the conclusion of the “Guardian of the Walls” operation in May 2021.

This approach entails attacking Israel from multiple fronts simultaneously.

However, Iran believes that engaging in an all-out war at this juncture would undermine its strategic interests, particularly regarding the negotiation of a nuclear agreement with the US.

Such an agreement could lead to the release of frozen funds and the lifting of Western sanctions imposed on Iran.

Yoni Ben Menachem Senior Middle East Analyst

About Yoni Ben Menachem

Yoni Ben Menachem is a Middle East senior analyst ,a journalist and
the former CEO of the Israel Broadcasting Authority(IBA). He has
decades of experience in written and video journalism. Ben
Menachem’s path in the media world began as a producer for
Japanese television in the Middle East. After that, he held many key
positions in the media The Israeli: CEO of the Israel Broadcasting
Authority, director of “Kol Israel” Radio, reporter on West Bank and
Gaza Strip affairs, political reporter and commentator, commentator
on Middle East affairs and editor-in-chief and presenter of the
program “Middle East Magazine”. 

Recent Posts

My Twitter