The violations of the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt are causing significant alarm within both political and security circles.
Israeli intelligence has identified multiple breaches of the treaty.
According to security sources, Egypt has expanded military airfields in Sinai, specifically in the Refidim and El-Arish areas, constructed new bunkers and anti-tank obstacles, and established new ammunition and fuel depots.
Additionally, seven tunnels have been built under the Suez Canal—four in the Ismailia area and three in Port Said.
Reports also indicate that Egypt has widened major transportation routes in Sinai into highways, despite the region’s sparse population.
While some of these violations were permitted by Israel to assist the Egyptian military’s fight against ISIS affiliates in Sinai, security officials emphasize that such approvals were always granted retroactively to avoid diplomatic confrontations with Egypt.
Nevertheless, according to their assessments, Egypt currently maintains four times the military forces in Sinai than permitted under the peace treaty.
Since assuming power in 2014, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has been modernizing Egypt’s military forces—on land, at sea, and in the air—investing heavily with the assistance of the U.S. military aid package, which amounts to $1.5 billion annually.
Furthermore, the Egyptian military continues to conduct exercises simulating combat scenarios against Israel.
The first official figure to publicly address Egypt’s unprecedented military buildup and accuse it of violating the peace treaty was Dr. Yechiel Leiter, Israel’s new ambassador to the U.S.
Political sources believe his remarks were made openly after the Trump administration took office, as Israel seeks U.S. intervention to prevent further treaty violations, especially in light of the strained relations between Israel and Egypt since the war in Gaza began.
Late last month, prior to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, Dr. Leiter accused Egypt of “serious violations” of the peace agreement in a meeting with Jewish organizations.
He stated that Jerusalem would soon raise concerns about Egypt’s military expansion. “There are bases being built that can only be used for offensive operations and offensive weaponry,” Leiter asserted.
“This is a clear violation. We turned a blind eye for a long time, but it continues. This is an issue we will put on the table soon and emphasize strongly.”
Senior security officials assess that despite tensions between Israel and Egypt, President el-Sisi currently has no interest in waging war against Israel or violating the peace treaty, particularly while Donald Trump is U.S. president.
However, they do not rule out the possibility that, in an extreme scenario, el-Sisi could deploy large military forces into Sinai to threaten Israel.
A pressing question for Israeli intelligence is why the Egyptian military is investing so heavily in military fortifications and opening new routes for the rapid deployment of large forces to Sinai, especially after having eliminated ISIS’s local affiliate, while Egypt’s main potential adversaries are Ethiopia and Libya.
Why does the Egyptian military continue to conduct maneuvers simulating battles against IDF forces?
Senior political sources argue that Israel must abandon the flawed assumptions that led to the intelligence failure of October 7, 2023, and that it is time to “slaughter sacred cows” and adopt new ways of thinking.
They emphasize the urgent need to investigate whether Egyptian intelligence had prior knowledge of Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel on October 7 but failed to warn Israel.
Senior security officials state that despite the peace agreement, Egypt has a clear interest in weakening Israel’s military and political power.
Egypt seeks to increase Israel’s dependence on Cairo as a mediator with Hamas in order to extract political and economic concessions, particularly in relation to its influence over the U.S. administration.
Egypt perceives that “the road to Washington passes through Jerusalem.”
According to them, Egypt has accustomed Israel in recent years to treaty violations in Sinai, and this must stop.
A senior political figure estimates that Israel’s leadership will bring the issue to the Trump administration in an effort to resolve it diplomatically and restore the status quo.
He emphasized that Israel has a strategic interest in preserving the peace agreement with Egypt and reducing tensions between the two countries.
