President Trump entered a direct confrontation on January 17 with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, following Khamenei’s accusation that he was responsible for the unrest in Iran.
In an interview with Politico, Trump called for ending Khamenei’s thirty seven year rule. “This is a sick man who must manage his country properly and stop killing people. His country is the worst place in the world to live because of failed leadership. The time has come to seek new leadership in Iran,” Trump said.
Arab commentators in the Middle East do not predict long term survival for the current Iranian regime in the event of a military confrontation with the Trump administration.
The wave of protest in Iran has temporarily subsided due to brutal repression, but analysts believe it is expected to return and that the last word has not been spoken on the matter.
According to these assessments, the fall of President Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria and the successful United States operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro proved that Iran cannot rely on Russia and China to protect its interests. The strategic partnership with them stands on very shaky ground. They act solely based on their own interests, and Iran cannot depend on them.
Their statements in support of Iran are largely symbolic and amount mainly to lip service.
Senior political officials in Jerusalem estimate that President Trump has created a new international reality and is applying direct pressure on countries around the world without any restraint.
The diplomatic silence of China and Russia allowed President Trump to take control of Venezuela’s energy and mineral resources.
Russia, which former Syrian President Bashar al Assad relied on for support, chose its own needs in Ukraine. China preferred to protect its broad economic interests rather than risk a confrontation with Washington.
Iran exports a large portion of its oil to China, but if China must choose between its global economic interests and its relationship with the current Iranian regime, it may sacrifice Iran, according to senior political officials.
They stress that the Chinese act in a purely self interested and egocentric manner.
Therefore, Iran has no choice but to rely on itself. China and Russia will not fight on its behalf if doing so clashes with their direct economic or security interests.
Senior security officials say that the Iranian regime now faces a critical test period that challenges its endurance and pushes it to fight for its continued existence.
Iran lost its air defense array during the twelve day war with Israel. The main significant weapon remaining in its possession is its ballistic missile arsenal, approximately two thousand missiles, and with this limited capability it must cope with both American military power and Israeli military power.
As demonstrated in the twelve day war, the regime also failed to protect its nuclear sites, which were destroyed by Israel and the United States. It also lost much of the senior leadership of the Revolutionary Guards in a brilliant Mossad operation. It is likely that Israel’s intelligence network inside Iran remains highly active and is assisting efforts to bring down the regime.
The combination of widespread public protest, severe economic crisis, and security failure poses a real threat to the survival of the Iranian regime.
Iran’s failed conduct has caused it to lose much of the deterrence power it once held in the Middle East.
According to senior security officials, despite the public bravado and threats voiced by Iranian leaders, an internal reckoning has already begun within the political elite, especially among senior figures in the reformist camp led by President Masoud Pezeshkian.
The Iranian attempt to open a secret channel with Washington for negotiations over a new nuclear agreement reflects weakness. President Trump exposed the channel to the media and then publicly humiliated Iran by announcing that he was freezing the talks in response to the massacre of protesters.
Real military power remains in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards, the true shield of the Iranian leadership headed by Ali Khamenei.
According to security officials, there are currently two scenarios that could destabilize the ayatollahs’ regime.
The first scenario is a combination of continuous American military pressure together with a popular uprising that the regime fails to suppress. The second scenario is a move by the military establishment itself, deciding that the current political leadership under Khamenei has become a burden and must be replaced to prevent a complete collapse of the regime.
Senior security officials believe that it is entirely possible that President Trump is not interested in toppling the Iranian regime through a direct military action, due to concerns that an uncontrolled collapse could lead to internal and regional chaos and even to the disintegration of Iran.
Therefore, it is likely that he will attempt to accelerate a regime replacement process through military pressure and popular pressure, but in a controlled manner, “without throwing out the baby with the bathwater”.
Senior political officials estimate that the countdown has already begun. The question is not whether the Iranian regime will fall, but when.
Even if the current wave of protest gradually subsides, a new wave will follow because of the severe economic crisis that Iran has no solution for.
The Iranian regime is undergoing an increasing erosion process, and the rift between it and Iranian society is widening as repression and killings intensify. It appears that the political life expectancy of the current regime is rapidly shortening.
