Senior security sources assess that Iran will attempt to prolong the negotiations with the United States, scheduled for this weekend in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital, beyond the initially agreed two-week period. In their view, the Iranian strategy is designed to achieve several key objectives:
First, to gain as much time as possible, during which global oil prices may decline and markets stabilize. This, they believe, would make it more difficult for President Donald Trump to resume military action if the negotiations encounter obstacles.
Second, the passage of time is expected to wear down U.S. forces stationed in the Gulf region and increase the cost of maintaining their presence there.
Third, time is a critical factor for Iran in attempting to restore parts of its damaged military capabilities. Iran still possesses intact ballistic missiles buried in underground storage facilities that were bombed by Israel and the United States, and it seeks to retrieve and potentially redeploy them if necessary in the future.
In any case, security officials estimate that the negotiations in Islamabad will be difficult, given the wide gaps between the parties. It is not unlikely that the talks could collapse at some stage, leading to a resumption of fighting.
Iran aims, through these negotiations, to reach an agreement that would solidify its status as a regional power, including sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and its transformation into a new source of economic revenue. In essence, Iran seeks to assert control over a waterway that was considered international prior to the war.
Israel, for its part, has not achieved its war objectives regarding Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and regional proxies. However, there is no certainty that the war has truly ended.
The current ceasefire is temporary, lasting only two weeks. Although President Trump is interested in ending the war, he is unlikely to concede on the issue of Iran’s possession of uranium enriched to 60 percent, which remains buried underground, or to agree in principle to continued Iranian uranium enrichment. The White House has stated this position officially, and it will be difficult to reverse.
The United States’ alignment with Israel regarding continued fighting in Lebanon against Hezbollah remains significant. Israel will need to capitalize on this support to achieve operational gains in southern Lebanon that will push the Hezbollah threat away from northern Israeli communities. The campaign in Lebanon is expected to continue for several months.
According to security assessments, the Iranian regime has indeed survived the conflict so far, but this was due in part to a miscalculation by the United States regarding the importance of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on the global economy.
Had Washington been better prepared in advance to prevent its closure, the outcome might have been entirely different.
In any event, Iran’s missile capabilities, particularly its ability to produce ballistic missiles, as well as its broader military industry, have been severely damaged by sustained Israeli and American strikes, including those targeting nuclear facilities.
Additionally, Israel has successfully carried out numerous targeted killings of senior Iranian military officials. Those who remain are reportedly in hiding and reluctant to appear in public.
Iran is now attempting to support Hezbollah, which demonstrated loyalty by joining the conflict in its defense.
Tehran will likely seek, through various means, to ensure that any ceasefire agreement also includes Lebanon, in an effort to preserve the principle of “unity of arenas.”
However, for now, it appears that Israel’s firm stance on this issue, backed fully by President Trump, will prevail. Israel will need to intensify its strikes in Lebanon in preparation for the possibility that the American position may shift in the future.
Following the ceasefire with Iran, the Israeli Air Force is now freer to focus on operations in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah assets and inflicting significant damage, as already witnessed in recent strikes. Security officials estimate that the aerial campaign will expand to encompass all Hezbollah targets across Lebanon.
According to these officials, since the beginning of the current round of fighting, the Israel Defense Forces have eliminated approximately 1,500 Hezbollah operatives.
