Senior Israeli officials say that Iran encouraged Hezbollah to violate the ceasefire and provoke an Israeli response in order to inflame President Trump’s anger toward Israel and create the false impression that Jerusalem is deliberately sabotaging the memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran.
According to these officials, Israel has made it clear to Washington that it is fully committed to the ceasefire and that any Israeli military action against Hezbollah has been purely defensive, undertaken in response to Hezbollah’s violations.
Senior security officials further contend that Iran’s pressure on the United States on June20 to secure an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon was intended to help Hezbollah salvage its fortified ground complex on the Ali Taher Ridge in southern Lebanon, currently under Israeli military control, where dozens of Hezbollah operatives are reportedly trapped.
High-ranking political officials in Jerusalem argue that Iran is seeking to bend Washington to its will regarding the implementation of the memorandum of understanding and to shape its execution according to Tehran’s strategic vision.
According to their assessment, the Iranians are attempting to do so even before negotiations on a permanent settlement have begun, seeking to compel both the United States and Israel to accept, whether willingly or not, the principle of “unity of arenas” and the strategic linkage between Iran, Lebanon, and Hezbollah.
Israeli officials believe that Tehran is convinced it possesses two critical geopolitical pressure points tied to global maritime commerce: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Through these chokepoints, Iran believes it can exert leverage over the United States, and particularly over President Trump, whom Iranian leaders reportedly view as deeply concerned about a potential surge in global oil prices, disruptions to Gulf oil exports, and the political consequences such developments could have in the U.S. midterm elections this November.
From Tehran’s perspective, these vulnerabilities significantly constrain the American president’s room for maneuver and could ultimately force him to accommodate Iranian demands while also pressuring Israel to do the same.
This perception was reflected in a statement issued on June 18 by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who asserted that President Trump had agreed to the memorandum of understanding with Iran “out of desperation” and had employed “various forms of pressure” to bring it about.
A senior Israeli security official assesses that Iran intends to conduct negotiations on a permanent agreement through a strategy of coercive diplomacy, repeatedly wielding the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb whenever negotiations encounter obstacles.
Israeli officials view Khamenei’s statement as a set of guiding principles for the Iranian negotiating team.
In his remarks, Khamenei stated that President Masoud Pezeshkian had assured him that if the American side attempted to impose “excessive demands,” the Iranian negotiating team would reject them. “From this point forward, we, the proud nation, await the fulfillment of the conditions that were agreed upon in advance,” Khamenei declared. He further emphasized that direct negotiations with the United States should not be interpreted as “acceptance of the enemy’s position.”
Shortly after the Supreme Leader’s statement, President Pezeshkian issued his own message, declaring: “As President of the Republic and Chairman of the Supreme National Security Council, I and all members of the Council are fully committed to addressing the concerns of the Leader and safeguarding the rights of the Iranian people and the Resistance Front.”
He added that “the red line for all branches of government remains the national interests and the preservation of the dignity, prestige, and power of the Iranian nation,” expressing confidence that “the negotiating team will achieve a major victory.”
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Parliament and head of the Iranian delegation to the talks, described the Supreme Leader’s remarks as a “roadmap,” stressing that they demonstrate more clearly than ever that “the end of the memorandum of understanding is merely the beginning of a difficult and complex journey.” He also warned that Iran would deliver a “crushing response” should the other side fail to honor its commitments.
Israeli security officials further assess that Iran is likely to pursue tough and uncompromising negotiations with Washington in order to send a message to its regional proxies throughout the Middle East that it emerged victorious from the conflict and remains committed to preserving and rebuilding its network of allies as quickly as possible.
According to these officials, Tehran is planning to transform next month’s multi-day funeral procession for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated by Israel, into a major demonstration of victory over both the United States and Israel, while also using the event to project strength against domestic opponents of the regime.
Security officials also maintain that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) agreed to the memorandum of understanding because it stands to benefit directly from the arrangement due to its extensive economic influence and broad control over key sectors of the Iranian economy.
Over the years, the IRGC has built a vast economic empire under the sanctions regime, with interests spanning the oil, construction, telecommunications, port operations, and infrastructure sectors. Its engineering arm, Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters, oversees hundreds of subsidiaries involved in major projects across energy, infrastructure, logistics, automotive manufacturing, tourism, and communications.
Given the structure of Iran’s economy and the requirement that foreign companies cooperate with local partners, the IRGC is expected to become a central player in any reopening of Iran’s economy to foreign investment and international trade.
As a result, even if sanctions are lifted and substantial foreign capital flows into Iran, a significant portion of those funds is likely to pass through economic networks linked directly or indirectly to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
