Despite the recent escalation on the northern border for which the Hezbollah organization, in coordination with Iran, is responsible, we must not forget that Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is still hiding in a bunker since 2006 and after admitting that in retrospect, his decision to kidnap the two Israeli soldiers was a mistake that led to the Second Lebanon War.
Nasrallah does not come out of the bunker for fear that Israel will try to assassinate him, especially in recent days, he is conducting psychological warfare against Israel, the Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar, Hezbollah’s mouthpiece, published on April 13th a detailed report that Hezbollah captured Israeli agents who were gathering information about Hassan Nasrallah and the organization’s leaders.
Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech on April 14 on the occasion of World Jerusalem Day, which Iran celebrates at the end of the month of Ramadan, in which it was evident that he was very encouraged by the processes in the international arena and in the Middle East: the weakening of the position of the United States in the Middle East, the increased involvement of Russia and Iran in the region, and the internal rift within Israel following the wave of protest against the judicial reform.
Israel’s intelligence organizations see now in Hassan Nasrallah much more courage and daring to act against Israel because of these developments and his assessment that Israel is not in a good situation internally and internationally and is in the worst overall situation since its establishment.
Hassan Nasrallah’s speech was full of warnings to Israel and threats that any Israeli attack on Jerusalem, the West Bank or the Gaza Strip or Syria would drag the region into a major war.
He focused on Lebanon and warned that Hezbollah will respond without hesitation to any security incident that happens in Lebanon.
Despite his threats of war, this does not mean that he is interested in an all-out war with Israel, especially in the current situation in which Lebanon is, it seems that he is trying to take advantage of the situation and hit Israel through the Palestinians without the fingerprints of his organization, thus denying Israel the possibility of responding militarily against Hezbollah.
He changes the rules of the game that were used from 2006 until now, without accepting responsibility for the attack at the Megiddo Junction and the firing of rockets from southern Lebanon towards the Galilee, these two attacks were carried out by Palestinians in coordination with Hezbollah and after receiving the green light from it.
In response to the attack at the Megiddo junction, Israel attacked a Hezbollah drone base in Syria and in response to the rocket fire in southern Lebanon it attacked Hamas targets in Lebanon, Hezbollah did not respond to these attacks from Israel’s side.
Hassan Nasrallah adopted the strategy of silence and ambiguity and did not take responsibility in his speech for the attack at the Megiddo junction and the rocket fire from southern Lebanon.
He justified his silence by saying that he wanted to study the issue and consult with his allies and announced that Hezbollah adopted the policy of silence as part of conducting the battle against the enemy and that this is better because it worries the enemy.
Hezbollah is the sole ruler of southern Lebanon, the UNIFIL force deployed in southern Lebanon is afraid of confronting it, in the past Hezbollah operatives attacked UNIFIL soldiers whom they suspected of undermining Hezbollah’s control of the region, in December of last year an Irish UNIFIL soldier was killed after Hezbollah claimed that he was taking pictures in a no-take area in southern Lebanon.
The Lebanese army also coordinates its activities in southern Lebanon with Hezbollah.
The claim that Hezbollah did not know about the launch of 34 rockets from southern Lebanon towards Israel is ridiculous, Hamas that launched the rockets will not dare to embarrass Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, the military presence of Hamas in southern Lebanon is with the approval of Hezbollah and Hamas is obliged to report to Hezbollah on all its actions.
The day before the rockets were launched from southern Lebanon towards Israel, Ismail Haniyeh, the chairman of the political bureau of Hamas, visited Beirut and had the breaking of the fast meal (iftar) with Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, with General Ismail Qa’ani, the commander of the Iranian Quds Force, and with Mujtaba Amani , Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon.
The Wall Street Journal reported on April 13 that General Ismail Ka’ani coordinated the rocket attack from Lebanon towards the Galilee with Hezbollah and Hamas and that he was the one who pressed to actually carry out the attack.
According to Lebanese sources, Hezbollah is worried about the latest developments and is not satisfied with the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran and Syria, Hassan Nasrallah fears that this will lead to a weakening of Hezbollah’s position in Syria and Yemen.
The internal situation in Lebanon also has an effect on the intentions and plans of Hassan Nasrallah in relation to Israel, the Lebanese political system is paralyzed and cannot elect a new president for the country, and Hezbollah is having difficulty getting former minister Suleiman Faranjiya, who is the preferred candidate over Hassan Nasrallah, to be elected president.
Hezbollah cannot ignore Lebanon’s difficult economic situation and the attitudes of its citizens who do not want another war with Israel, a new war between Hezbollah and Israel could lead to the collapse of Lebanon after Israel announced in the clearest way that it will attack Lebanon’s civil infrastructure in a war and return it to the Stone Age.
A new war between Israel and Hezbollah also endangers the economic water agreement between Israel and Lebanon that was signed last year after Israel accepted Hezbollah’s terms.
Hassan Nasrallah knows that entering a war against Israel is an adventure whose results are uncertain and that Lebanon will pay a high price for it, it seems that he now prefers to act against Israel through Palestinian terrorist operatives and maintain the possibility of denial for fear of the Israeli reaction.