Yahya Sinwar’s Impact on Hamas Rule in Gaza

It is widely perceived in Gaza that Yahya Sinwar's recent offensive against Israel on October 7th, while seemingly powerful, has inadvertently accelerated the decline of Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip.

Yahya Sinwar asserts control over Gaza, yet faces disagreement from Hamas leaders abroad.

The leadership is actively exploring pragmatic strategies for political survival in anticipation of the challenging times ahead.

With each passing day, the IDF strengthens its presence in Gaza. While Hamas retains strongholds, residents are gradually realizing that the era of Hamas rule is approaching its end.

Hamas military leaders, including Sinwar, are entrenched in bunkers, surrounded by IDF divisions. The IDF is intensifying ground operations and tunnel warfare to reach key figures and rescue Israeli hostages.


Hamas has lost control in the north of Gaza and is on the verge of losing key areas.

The situation in Rafah and the “Philadelphia Corridor” remains uncertain pending Israeli decisions.

Despite Sinwar’s confidence, the broader situation differs.

The PA and Arab nations recognize the imminent downfall of Hamas, with Israel’s unwavering determination backed by the United States.

The PA and Arab nations are preparing for the aftermath, while Hamas leaders abroad acknowledge the impending end.

Sinwar’s claim of control is met with skepticism, especially from figures like Khaled Meshaal.

Tensions between Sinwar and Meshaal, representing different external influences, have strained relations.

Sinwar’s “victory” over Israel in October is overshadowed by the leadership abroad considering alternatives like joining the PLO.

Despite Sinwar’s anger at the perceived betrayal, the possibility of Hamas joining the PLO or a unity government is discussed. However, such prospects face significant opposition from Israel.

The combination of Israeli determination and IDF activity in Khan Yunis is pivotal for achieving Israel’s goals.

The military wing of Hamas might persist in limited “pockets,” but overall control will likely shift, with the IDF continuing its presence and targeting Hamas operatives based on precise intelligence.

In the streets of Gaza, there is a growing sentiment that while Sinwar made a strong impact against Israel on October 7th, his actions may have inadvertently hastened the demise of Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip.

Yoni Ben Menachem Senior Middle East Analyst

About Yoni Ben Menachem

Yoni Ben Menachem is a Middle East senior analyst ,a journalist and
the former CEO of the Israel Broadcasting Authority(IBA). He has
decades of experience in written and video journalism. Ben
Menachem’s path in the media world began as a producer for
Japanese television in the Middle East. After that, he held many key
positions in the media The Israeli: CEO of the Israel Broadcasting
Authority, director of “Kol Israel” Radio, reporter on West Bank and
Gaza Strip affairs, political reporter and commentator, commentator
on Middle East affairs and editor-in-chief and presenter of the
program “Middle East Magazine”. 

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