Yesterday, Abu Obeidah, the spokesperson for Hamas’ military wing, announced that Hamas and other resistance factions are fully committed to the ceasefire agreement, contingent upon Israel’s adherence.
This statement aims to shift responsibility to Israel and reinforce Hamas’ image as committed to the ceasefire.
Hamas’ primary goal during the ceasefire is to regroup militarily and re-arm by producing weapons—primarily rockets—using machinery smuggled through tunnels.
Additionally, Hamas seeks to recruit more young fighters in anticipation of potential renewed conflict.
From Hamas’ perspective, every day of ceasefire erodes Israel’s military achievements.
The influx of humanitarian aid into Gaza, as stipulated in the ceasefire agreement, strengthens Hamas’ position.
The daily entry of 600 trucks carrying aid over the 42-day ceasefire period provides an opportunity for Hamas to stockpile essential supplies, such as food, water, and fuel.
Moreover, Hamas reportedly profits by selling aid packages in local markets, using the revenue to recruit additional personnel.
Sources within Gaza close to Hamas indicate that the organization’s current strategy is to prolong the ceasefire and eventually turn it into a permanent arrangement.
Hamas believes that President Trump, eager to advance his regional agenda, will not permit Israel to resume hostilities.
To exploit this, Hamas is prepared to make concessions during the second phase of the ceasefire negotiations, scheduled to begin on the 16th day of the truce.
The organization aims to maximize internal pressure from the families of Israeli hostages on the Israeli government, pushing it toward a permanent ceasefire that would solidify Hamas’ rule in Gaza and present an image of victory.
Such a perceived victory would bolster Hamas’ standing among Palestinians and establish it as a significant regional player that cannot be ignored in future political negotiations led by the Trump administration.
While Hamas is likely to avoid giving Israel any pretext to resume fighting, security officials do not rule out the possibility that it may claim hostages have disappeared to retain leverage for future negotiations.
If a lasting ceasefire is established, Hamas could use this tactic to exert further pressure on Israel.
Under the terms of the ceasefire, Israel’s ability to act militarily is constrained.
It must engage in negotiations with Hamas regarding the implementation of the deal’s second phase.
Hamas is expected to prolong the talks and display flexibility to entrap Israel in a position where resuming hostilities becomes difficult.
The continued rule of Hamas in Gaza poses a significant challenge to the Trump administration’s efforts to advance normalization between Israel and Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia.
Without military pressure from Israel, efforts to politically and economically isolate Hamas may prove ineffective.
Senior political officials argue that Israel missed an opportunity to topple Hamas’ rule.
They believe that Israel’s military strategy in Gaza has failed and advocate for a shift in approach, which includes replacing the military leadership responsible for the failures of October 7.
To effectively weaken Hamas, Israel must target its civil and governmental infrastructure and either establish a temporary military administration or work with the Trump administration to create an alternative government.
Officials emphasize that Hamas’ rule cannot be dismantled without a full military occupation of Gaza.
However, convincing the Trump administration to support such an operation remains a significant challenge, with the current likelihood appearing low.
No Israeli government can accept Hamas’ continued control of Gaza.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) remain the only force capable of dismantling Hamas’ military capabilities.
Without completing the task, Hamas will rearm and once again threaten Israeli border communities and national security.
Hamas has already issued threats of further attacks, underscoring the urgency of decisive action.
