Against the backdrop of Iran’s gradual weakening, a new Sunni coalition is beginning to take form. At its center stands Turkey, seeking regional leadership and signaling a reassessment of the nuclear option as a means of reshaping the balance of deterrence.
Behind Turkey’s mediation initiatives between the United States and Iran, as well as in other arenas, officials in Jerusalem and Western capitals identify a broader strategy aimed at managing regional risks, strengthening Turkey’s international standing, and advancing a neo-Ottoman vision. At its core stands President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ambition to establish Turkey as an unavoidable regional power.
The Lebanon Model in Gaza
Hamas is working to remain the dominant military force in the Gaza Strip behind the scenes, alongside a formal civilian administration, in order to ensure full control for years to come.
Senior officials in Israel are concerned that a historic opportunity to replace the ayatollahs’ regime in Iran may be missed if President Trump does not exploit the current crisis and refrains from striking Iran.
Reza Pahlavi is viewed as a symbolic figure for alternative leadership. Israel and the United States favor a gradual transition of power while preserving the oil industry, in order to prevent chaos, weapons proliferation, and the strengthening of regional power centers in the event of a collapse of the Iranian regime.
The Iranian regime is facing a combination of expanding popular protest, a resounding military failure, and growing international pressure. This situation threatens its stability and raises doubts about its ability to survive the current crisis.
The unprecedented U.S. military operation in Venezuela and the abduction of its president, Nicolás Maduro, is shaking the global support network of Iran, narrowing the operational space available to Hezbollah and Hamas, strengthening American deterrence, and indirectly improving Israel’s strategic position, according to senior security officials.
Behind the scenes of Hamas’s internal elections, Iran has identified Khalil al-Hayya as a key figure in the movement’s leadership, one capable of preserving deterrence and sustaining the armed struggle against Israel.
The deepening economic crisis, the collapse of the rial, and growing threats from Israel and the United States are fueling an expanding wave of protests on Iran’s streets and university campuses.
However, according to senior Israeli security officials, the regime’s repression apparatus, the absence of an organized opposition, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s firm control over the security forces currently prevent any real threat to the stability of the ruling system.
Senior Israeli security officials are voicing concern over Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s ability to eradicate the ISIS terrorist organization in Syria.
According to them, ISIS has become an indicator of a prolonged governance vacuum in the country, one that could quickly spill over to the Golan Heights and endanger Israeli communities.
Senior political sources estimate that Israel will likely have to launch a large-scale operation in Iran in the coming months to thwart its increasingly accelerated ballistic missile program, a topic that will be discussed during Prime Minister Netanyahu’s meeting with President Trump. The anticipated operation to weaken Hezbollah’s power is intended, among other objectives, to neutralize Hezbollah ahead of the planned strike on Iran.
Against the backdrop of Iran’s gradual weakening, a new Sunni coalition is beginning to take form. At its center stands Turkey, seeking regional leadership and signaling a reassessment of the nuclear option as a means of reshaping the balance of deterrence.
Behind Turkey’s mediation initiatives between the United States and Iran, as well as in other arenas, officials in Jerusalem and Western capitals identify a broader strategy aimed at managing regional risks, strengthening Turkey’s international standing, and advancing a neo-Ottoman vision. At its core stands President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ambition to establish Turkey as an unavoidable regional power.
The Lebanon Model in Gaza
Hamas is working to remain the dominant military force in the Gaza Strip behind the scenes, alongside a formal civilian administration, in order to ensure full control for years to come.
Senior officials in Israel are concerned that a historic opportunity to replace the ayatollahs’ regime in Iran may be missed if President Trump does not exploit the current crisis and refrains from striking Iran.
Reza Pahlavi is viewed as a symbolic figure for alternative leadership. Israel and the United States favor a gradual transition of power while preserving the oil industry, in order to prevent chaos, weapons proliferation, and the strengthening of regional power centers in the event of a collapse of the Iranian regime.
The Iranian regime is facing a combination of expanding popular protest, a resounding military failure, and growing international pressure. This situation threatens its stability and raises doubts about its ability to survive the current crisis.
The unprecedented U.S. military operation in Venezuela and the abduction of its president, Nicolás Maduro, is shaking the global support network of Iran, narrowing the operational space available to Hezbollah and Hamas, strengthening American deterrence, and indirectly improving Israel’s strategic position, according to senior security officials.
Behind the scenes of Hamas’s internal elections, Iran has identified Khalil al-Hayya as a key figure in the movement’s leadership, one capable of preserving deterrence and sustaining the armed struggle against Israel.
The deepening economic crisis, the collapse of the rial, and growing threats from Israel and the United States are fueling an expanding wave of protests on Iran’s streets and university campuses.
However, according to senior Israeli security officials, the regime’s repression apparatus, the absence of an organized opposition, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s firm control over the security forces currently prevent any real threat to the stability of the ruling system.
Senior Israeli security officials are voicing concern over Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s ability to eradicate the ISIS terrorist organization in Syria.
According to them, ISIS has become an indicator of a prolonged governance vacuum in the country, one that could quickly spill over to the Golan Heights and endanger Israeli communities.
Senior political sources estimate that Israel will likely have to launch a large-scale operation in Iran in the coming months to thwart its increasingly accelerated ballistic missile program, a topic that will be discussed during Prime Minister Netanyahu’s meeting with President Trump. The anticipated operation to weaken Hezbollah’s power is intended, among other objectives, to neutralize Hezbollah ahead of the planned strike on Iran.
