Despite Iran’s reluctance to engage in a regional war, it must now navigate its next steps.
It is anticipated that Iran may instruct Hezbollah to escalate attacks on Israel rather than opting for direct involvement in the conflict.
According to political officials in Jerusalem, Israel is poised to resume fighting in the Gaza Strip to exert military pressure on Hamas and pursue the release of Israeli abductees.
If the IDF’s offensive resumes, Iran faces a dilemma.
Recognizing the IDF’s superior strength over Hamas, Iran must decide whether to accept the potential defeat of the Hamas movement, which would be a significant setback for the Iran-led axis of resistance, or risk entering a broader regional conflict.
The Iranian leadership, particularly Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, may need to decide whether to instruct Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, to engage in an extensive military conflict with Israel to support Hamas.
Notably, Iran has historically advised Nasrallah to escalate confrontations with Israel cautiously, avoiding crossing certain “red lines,” such as launching strong rockets and drones attacks in the heart of Israel.
Since 2006, Iran has strategically built Hezbollah’s military power to safeguard its national security against potential Israeli or American attacks.
The reluctance to expend this military strength on supporting Hamas may stem from Iran’s broader interests in preserving Hezbollah’s capabilities.
Iran’s displeasure with Hamas, following its uncoordinated attack on Israeli settlements in October, has strained their relationship.
Despite activating proxies like the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Syria and Iraq against Israel and the U.S., these actions have not significantly aided Hamas in its conflict with the IDF.
As the IDF prepares to intensify its offensive in the coming days, Hamas faces a critical juncture.
While the group may seek external assistance when its military capabilities are strained, Iran’s response is expected to be measured.
The risk of a regional war, coupled with the presence of U.S. military assets in the region, suggests that Iran may opt to tolerate the collapse of Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip, potentially losing its loyal ally, the Islamic Jihad organization, in the process.
